Enda Kenny and David Cameron to meet over Brexit vote

Taoiseach Enda Kenny will meet British prime minister David Cameron in Manchester next week amid growing Irish concerns about the outcome of this month’s UK referendum on EU membership.

Recent polls, some of which have put the Leave side ahead, are a “matter of concern”, according to the Taoiseach, who has already spoken about the dangers with other EU leaders.

Mr Kenny will make a direct plea next week to Irish people living in Britain, and voters with an Irish heritage, to vote to remain in the EU when he appears at a joint press conference in Manchester alongside Mr Cameron.

It will be the first time in the campaign when Mr Cameron will stand beside a foreign leader to urge a Remain vote, which could provoke a backlash from Leave campaigners.

Mr Kenny will spend two days in Manchester, Liverpool and Glasgow to explain the Irish view that continued membership of the EU is good for both the UK and Ireland.

Increasing nervousness

Despite the increasing nervousness in official circles about the outcome of the June 23rd referendum, the latest betting odds from Paddy Power and other bookmakers puts “the implied probability” of a vote to stay in the EU at 75 per cent.

Nevertheless, Irish companies dependent on the UK market, such as Cantrell & Cochrane, Irish Continental Group, Fyffes, Bank of Ireland and Ryanair – have all shown signs of stock market weakness as jitters grow.

“Up until this week, Irish shares with UK exposure had actually been trading very well, as had the UK domestic-focused names, but there has been a meaningful reverse in that trend over the last few days,” said David Holohan, chief investment officer at Merrion Capital in Dublin.

An opinion poll published by The Independent in London yesterday suggested the Leave side had moved 10 points ahead of Remain with less than two weeks to go before the referendum.

Sterling lost more than half a cent against the dollar soon after the poll was released.

German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble highlighted the critical nature of the vote when he said Britain would not be able to stay in the single market if it left the EU.

"That won't work. It would require the country to abide by the rules of a club from which it currently wants to withdraw. If the majority in Britain opts for Brexit, that would be a decision against the single market. In is in. Out is out. One has to respect the sovereignty of the British people."

Despite criticisms that the Irish Government has not done enough to put contingency plans in places in case of a Brexit vote, senior officials in the Department of the Taoiseach and Foreign Affairs have been working for months on the issue.

Detailed planning

Given a Brexit would take at least two years, or more, to complete, detailed planning can only begin after the result.

A high-level “debriefing” meeting between both governments is already scheduled for early July. The head of the EU affairs division in the Department of the Taoiseach, Rory Montgomery, has visited other EU capitals over the past few months to meet with senior local officials.

“We have been making our position known about what might happen and we have also been finding out what the thinking is of the larger EU states,” a source said.

Meanwhile, former president Mary McAleese has intervened in the debate, telling Northern Irish voters and Irish voters living in Britain not to believe assurances given that there will no change to the Border if the UK quits.