Run-off may be on cards in Kenya election

Kenya said it was determined to complete the count last night in a tight presidential race that has put Uhuru Kenyatta ahead of his main rival prime minister Raila Odinga and in with a chance of outright victory.

Mr Kenyatta, deputy prime minister and son of Kenya’s founding president, has led since results started trickling in after polls closed on Monday. But he has swung above and below the more than 50 per cent-mark needed to avoid a second round run-off.

If he wins, it would pose a dilemma for Kenya’s big western donors because he is due to go on trial at The Hague on charges of crimes against humanity linked to the violent aftermath of the last election in 2007.

Closed some of gap

Results from strongholds loyal to Mr Odinga have closed some of the gap, but the outcome is still unclear with almost a fifth of constituencies still to report. Mr Odinga could yet secure a run-off, provisionally set for April.

Technical problems slowed down the count, which has been questioned by both sides but considered broadly credible so far by international observers. Kenyans have had to wait four days already and the result is likely to go down to the wire.

“We are dedicated and determined that this process must end today,” James Oswago, chief executive of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission, told a news conference.

The poll is seen as a critical test for Kenya, East Africa’s largest economy, after its reputation as a stable democracy was damaged by the bloodshed that followed the 2007 election. Much will rest on whether the final result is accepted, and whether any challenges take place in the courts or on the streets.

Yesterday afternoon, with 10,312,347 total votes tallied, Mr Kenyatta had 5,159,344 votes or 50.03 per cent, to Mr Odinga’s 4,516,660 or 43.80 per cent, according to a display by the electoral commission. That was based on votes reported from 239 of 291 constituencies. The Kenyatta and Odinga camps have both raised concerns about the process, so legal battles could delay any run-off, heightening tensions in the divided nation. But this time, both sides have promised to turn to legal channels and keep the peace.

International observers have said the vote and count have been transparent so far, and the electoral commission has promised a credible vote. Yet Kenyans are still in the dark about the outcome.

The United States and other western nations, big donors that view Kenya as vital in the regional battle with militant Islam, have already indicated that a victory by Mr Kenyatta would complicate diplomatic relations.

Mr Kenyatta, son of former president Jomo Kenyatta, and his running mate, William Ruto, face trial at the International Criminal Court in The Hague on charges of unleashing death squads after the 2007 election. Both men deny the charges and have said they plan to clear their names.

Voting on ethnic lines

At this stage of the count, turnout is running at 72 per cent of eligible voters, roughly the level election officials had suggested it would reach, but there is still no clear picture of how many more votes have yet to be tallied. Reflecting how voting tends to run along ethnic lines rather than ideology, constituencies in tribal strongholds of the leading hopefuls often report results that show more than 90 per cent or more of votes going to one candidate. That means the remaining constituencies to report could have a big impact.

Mr Kenyatta (51) comes from the Kikuyu tribe, Kenya’s biggest ethnic community accounting for about a fifth of Kenya’s 40 million people, and Mr Odinga (68) is a Luo. Neither can rely solely on their own tribal supporters to win and both have running mates from other tribes to beef up their support. – (Reuters)