What chance peace in Ukraine?

A ceasefire is due to start tonight in eastern Ukraine, as agreed by the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France during 17-hour talks that ended on Thursday morning. Only the Kremlin-backed separatists in the region publicly celebrated the deal.

If they are happy, it is fair to assume their masters in Moscow are quietly satisfied with a pact that makes few demands on the rebels, none on Russia and piles more pressure and expectation on a Ukraine that is struggling to cope with the conflict, political upheaval and economic chaos.

If the truce takes effect as planned, at midnight local time, then next week Ukrainian military and rebel forces should start withdrawing heavy artillery to create a 50km “buffer zone”, which allows the separatists to keep much territory taken since a failed ceasefire deal agreed in Minsk last September.

Ukraine has agreed to pass constitutional reform to give broad autonomy to separatist-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions and to allow local elections in those regions.

The “Minsk 2” deal states these reforms and elections must proceed in co-ordination with and to the satisfaction of the militants. Only after they are complete will Russia allow Ukraine to retake control of its side of their border.

This formulation gives Moscow, through its proxies in Ukraine, the ability to prolong these processes and keep open a frontier. It is a frontier that, according to Kiev and the West, Russia supplies the insurgents with weapons and fighters.

At the same time, the deal obliges Kiev to resume payment of state wages and pensions in rebel-held territory. All prisoners should be released by both sides in the coming weeks and Kiev has agreed to grant an amnesty to people accused of crimes in the conflict zone.

This concession has drawn strong criticism from Ukrainians who are deeply sceptical about the ceasefire and who resent the possibility that separatist leaders and fighters – and even those potentially accused of downing the Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 – will never be brought to justice.

The Minsk pact may alleviate EU and Russian worries about more sanctions and calm US calls for the White House to arm Kiev. However, it will do little or nothing to ease pressure on a Ukraine that is embattled on several fronts.