Poland’s PiS leader quickly forgets who did the heavy lifting

For a woman set to be Poland's next prime minister, Beata Szydlo looked more edgy than elated on Sunday night. Her national, conservative, EU-critical Law and Justice (PiS) was on course for an absolute majority in the election.

By a landslide, Europe’s sixth most populous country had drifted further right into the arms of PiS, annihilating Poland’s left and raising the prospect of a bumpy road ahead with Brussels. Szydlo, a 52- year-old miner’s daughter and MP for just 10 years, fronted a winning campaign that combined conservative social politics and populist economic measures. So why was her gaze so stricken on Sunday night?

Solidarity generation

Perhaps because, after all the leg work, Szydlo is worried she is prime minister on sufferance. The real winner is PiS leader

Jaroslaw Kaczynski

, Poland’s political street-fighter and last man standing from the Solidarity generation.

Aware of his polarising political style, Kaczynski took a back seat and anointed Szydlo to run his campaign using the same moderate, centrist rhetoric that saw PiS take the presidency earlier this year. With PiS controlling both institutions, it is a remarkable comeback for Kaczynski and a case of political deja vu.

A decade ago, after his twin brother Lech took the presidency, Jaroslaw ousted his chosen prime minister to head the PiS government himself. He fell from power a year later, in 2007, leaving strained relations with Berlin and Brussels.

Five years ago president Lech Kaczynski died in a plane crash in Russia. And the surviving twin dedicated his Sunday evening victory speech to him – not Szydlo. "Mr President, reporting mission accomplished," said Kaczynski in his opening remarks.

Eventually he acknowledged Szydlo, a slight that only increased speculation the PiS leader – not the prime minister – holds the reins of power in Poland. Promising a smooth transition, Kaczynski said "there will be no taking of revenge . . . or kicking of those who have fallen of their own fault and very rightly so" – a dig at the outgoing PO. Indeed political observers suggested voter fatigue with the PO – their scandals and the perceived arrogance after two terms in power – was as much a part of the result as PiS campaign promises.

"There was no political leadership for years, merely administration of the country from one crisis to another," said Eugeniusz Smolar, senior policy fellow at Warsaw's Centre for International Relations. "That worked for a while, particularly in the context of the 2008-2010 European crisis, but many people, including PO voters, had enough."

If PiS gets an absolute majority in the the 460-seat Sejm, it will be a first in democratic Poland. Should its majority be tight, it may yet take on a stabilising junior party. In another first, a coalition of left-wing parties failed to clear the parliamentary threshold, leaving the Sejm without left-of-centre parties for the first time since the communists took power.

Instead voters turned to new alternatives: the Kukiz'15 party, founded by an ageing rocker, won 8.7 per cent, while the reformist Nowoczesna of economist Ryszard Petru peeled away PO voters to take 7.7 per cent. The farmer-backed Polish People's Party just squeezed past the hurdle with 5.2 per cent, though other small parties may yet follow suit. Voter turnout was 51.6 per cent.

Markets will be watching to see whether PiS makes good on its election promises to impose levies on largely foreign-owned banks and supermarket chains to finance election promises that include reversing a higher retirement age and higher family allowances. And after eight years of relative stability, Poland’s EU partners will be watching – and listening – closely for a change in tone from Warsaw’s new administration.

Tougher stance

A decade after the last Kaczyznski, PiS has promised a robust defence of Polish interests. In the case of the domestic coal industry, that could bode ill for EU climate change policy. PiS has promised to step up Warsaw’s alliance with the central European Visegrad group, in particular with Hungary, for an even tougher line on refugees.