Istanbul bombing another body blow to Turkish civil society

The personal stories of those killed in Saturday night's twin bomb attack in Istanbul have numbed the city: the 19-year-old student on a two-day break; the head of match-day security at the Besiktas stadium; a mini-bus driver from the predominantly Kurdish city of Diyarbakir working a route he had driven countless times before.

In all, at least 44 people were killed.

It was the latest in a string of violent attacks that have plagued Turkey for more than 18 months. A little-known Kurdish separatist group called the Kurdistan Freedom Hawks, or Tak, said two of its members were involved.

Tak has carried out at least four other bombings in Ankara and Istanbul over the past 12 months. It blames the Turkish government for killing hundreds of civilians and causing mass displacement through its military operations across several towns in the southeast.

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Tak is a new organisation, a new threat among the many responsible for a surge of violence committed both by and against the Turkish state. The violence has led to major divisions in the Nato member and long-time western ally.

Improved lives

As recently as three years ago, Turks could have expected a very different future. Peace talks with the Kurdish PKK were ongoing and thousands of its militants had withdrawn to Iraq. Massive infrastructure projects gave jobs to thousands. People whose families had for generations lived in mud-built homes had access to modern lifestyles.

Cities were cleaner than many Turks could ever remember.People climbed out of poverty as airports sprang up in rural regions, putting major cities – and salaries – within reach for the first time.

The ruling AK Party was lauded as an exemplary model for what modern political Islam could look like and how it could work. "No Islamic party has been as moderate and pro-western as the AKP," the Economist wrote in 2008.

The developments also emboldened a new identity for millions of the country's mostly religiously conservative citizens. For the first time since the days of the Ottoman Empire, Turks had, in the form of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a political voice that echoed the conversations held in teahouses and homes around the country.

Turkey has veered down a troubling path ever since. The first chink in the armour appeared in the state's response to mass anti-government protests in summer 2013. A policy of allowing rebels fighting the Syrian government to move weapons into Syria backfired spectacularly as Islamic State took over the battlefield. Erdogan felt threatened by enemies real and perceived – and, as a result, sought out and found rivals everywhere.

From a foreign policy founded on the principles of zero problems with neighbours, there are now tensions with Egypt, Iraq and Israel, the shooting down of a Russian jet in November 2015, and an ongoing military operation in Syria involving more than 800 Turkish soldiers that, until recently, would have been unthinkable.

The old war

However, Turkey’s biggest problems lie at home. The breaking point for the PKK and the country’s Kurdish minority came in Suruc on July 20th, 2015, when 32 Kurdish activists delivering aid to Kobane on the Turkish-Syrian border were massacred by an Islamic State suicide bomber. Kurdish militants accused Ankara of not doing enough to protect Kurdish civilians, and an old war started up once again.

Today, Erdogan’s government seeks to corral the PKK, Islamic State and the so-called Gulen movement, which it says was behind a failed coup in July, into a single threat to the Turkish nation. The strategy has, at least temporarily, brought traditional opponents into line.

In doing so, the authorities have, through the provisions of an ongoing state of emergency, jailed more than 140 independent and Kurdish-focused journalists. Leading Kurdish politicians have been imprisoned for alleged ties to the PKK, despite their calls for the organisation to lay down weapons.

Tens of thousands of civil servants, essential to the day to day running of the country, have been summarily fired. The lira has lost one-fifth of its value against the US dollar over the past year. EU accession talks are a shambles.

Bombings such as last Saturday’s – the fifth to afflict Istanbul this year alone – are likely to strengthen Erdogan’s grip on the country. The war against Kurds is broadly popular, and the heightened state of fear has people increasingly looking to strong and decisive leadership.