Long jail term likely for disgraced Chinese politician Bo Xilai

Chinese authorities are making final preparations for the trial of Bo Xilai, the former rising star in the Chinese Communist Party who was dramatically purged last year and now faces charges of corruption and abuse of power.

The trial is expected to start in the eastern city of Jinan within days, and Mr Bo could be sentenced to death, although a lengthy jail sentence is more likely.

It is a dramatic fall for a man who just two years ago seemed destined to make the standing committee of the ruling politburo, but his showy style and his populist, leftist rule in the 30 million-strong metropolis of Chongqing set him on a collision course with a leadership in transition.

Staged trial
A guilty verdict is almost a certainty, and Steve Tsang, of the China Policy Research Institute at the University of Nottingham, believes the trial will be well staged, effectively managed and short.

“The script has already been written and approved by the top leadership,” he said.

Mr Bo still has many sympathisers within the party, so he is unlikely to be executed. However, the case has cast a shadow over President Xi Jinping’s efforts to push economic reforms, and the leadership will seek a quick resolution.

Like Mr Xi, Mr Bo is a “princeling”, a Communist Party blueblood. He is the son of former vice-premier Bo Yibo, one of the “eight immortals” of the party.

Mr Bo’s indictment follows the conviction of his wife, Gu Kailai, last August for murdering British businessman Neil Heywood after a one-day trial that produced a suspended death sentence.

The ground is being prepared for the trial. In recent days, police detained Song Yangbiao, a journalist and a prominent leftist supporter of Mr Bo, on charges of “picking quarrels and causing trouble”.

Any chance of a final act of defiance was ruled out by the timely leaking of information that his son, Bo Guagua, would attend the expensive, elite Columbia Law School, a reminder of what was at stake if he did not follow the script.

Life in limbo
"Whatever the formal sentence, Bo will not be executed and will not be freed," said Mr Tsang. "He will be kept under detention until his death, the only difference is how many years he will spend in a jail, in contrast to subsequent 'soft detention'."

Guo Ming (29), who teaches at a primary school in Beijing, believes Mr Xilai will not get the death penalty because that would trigger public anger.

“After all, he has quite a few supporters. Also, he was an important figure within the party. It would project a bad image of the party if he gets the death sentence,” said Mr Guo.

Liu Hai (31), who works in sales at an import-export company, believes a life sentence is more likely: “Important figures don’t get death sentences, like Liu Zhijun who took tens of millions in bribes. But if it had been a normal person, even 100,000 yuan would be enough to get a death sentence.”