Nigeria move a ‘setback’ for democracy

Nigeria’s decision to postpone elections for six weeks because of spreading attacks by Islamist militant group Boko Haram in the northeast is a “setback” for democracy, the main opposition party has said.

Independent National Electoral Commission Chairman Attahiru Jega said the presidential and legislative elections will be pushed back from February 14th to March 28th, followed by state gubernatorial and legislative votes on April 11th.

The commission took the decision after the security forces said they would re-establish “normalcy” in six weeks.

The All Progressives Congress party, which is fielding Muhammadu Buhari as its presidential candidate, described the decision as “clearly a major setback for Nigerian democracy” and “highly provocative,” according to a statement Sunday from party Chairman John Odigie-Oyegun.

US Secretary of State John Kerry said he was “deeply disappointed” by the decision. It underscores the scale of the crisis facing a country that has branded itself as Africa’s new economic superpower.

While the oil-rich south and an emerging middle class have attracted investment in the past decade, the inability to stamp out Boko Haram raises questions about the state’s ability to guarantee basic law and order across a country of more than 170 million and as many as 250 ethnic groups.

The election pits the ruling People’s Democratic Party of President Goodluck Jonathan (57) against a united opposition led by former military ruler Buhari (72) in what analysts expect will be the tightest contest since the PDP came to power in 1999.

The delay will help officials distribute biometric cards to the almost 70 million registered voters, Jega said. “Delaying the election does aid the PDP and President Goodluck Jonathan,” said Ryan Cummings, the Cape Town-based chief Africa strategist at security company Red24 Plc.

“It derails the political momentum which Buhari and the APC has recently gathered and will also leave the opposition with limited funding to campaign for another six weeks.”

Boko Haram, which means “western education is a sin” in the Hausa language, has been battling for the past six years to establish Islamic law in Africa’s biggest oil producer, which has the continent’s largest economy and population.

The group killed more than 4,700 people last year, double the number who died in 2013, according to estimates from Bath, UK-based risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft.

Jega said the office of Nigeria’s National Security Adviser told him on Wednesday that “security could not be guaranteed during the proposed period in February,” especially in the northeastern states of Borno, Adamawa, Gombe and Yobe.

“What else can we do? We believe them,” he said.

“I know there are sufficient grounds for cynicism, but let’s keep hope alive.” The spiraling violence in Nigeria’s northeast and a 50 per cent decline in prices for oil, its main export, since June are tempering investor appetite for an economy that has expanded more than 5 per cent annually over the past four years.

Nigeria’s naira has tumbled 17 per cent in the past six months, the most among 24 African currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

“This will unfortunately dampen investor sentiment as this also puts a hold on key fiscal and monetary policy decisions which foreigners were waiting for before investing in the country again,” Omair Ansari, a Lagos-based analyst at Renaissance Capital, said in an e-mailed reply to questions.

John Kerry, in an e-mailed statement, urged the government to ensure there were no further delays.

“It is critical that the government not use security concerns as a pretext for impeding the democratic process,” he said. With no success in halting Boko Haram attacks for the past six years, there’s little evidence the security forces can accomplish the task in six weeks, said Jibrin Ibrahim, director of the Abuja-based Centre for Democracy and Development.

“They could seek another postponement because they might not solve it,” he said. “The implication is that we may not have an election. It is a coup by the military.”

A spokesman for the ruling People’s Democratic Party, Olisa Metuh, didn’t answer two calls to his mobile phone. Chad’s Intervention Boko Haram’s violence has spread this year.

The group attacked border towns inside the neighboring country of Niger for the first time last week, days after raiding the town of Fotokol in Cameroon. The raids followed an offensive by troops from Chad backed by their air force to drive Boko Haram out of towns it holds in northeastern Nigeria as part of its self-declared caliphate.

Before the Chadian army’s intervention, the group controlled territory about the size of Belgium, according to Verisk Maplecroft. African Union officials have agreed to create a regional force to fight the group.

More than 1 million Nigerians have fled their homes because of the violence. “Many people will be very angry and annoyed with this decision,” said Jega at the electoral commission. “We believe it is the best decision to make under the circumstances.”

Bloomberg