The assage of the Nice Treaty in a second referendum still cannot be guaranteed despite a shift by voters in favour of it in the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll.
Some 40 per cent would now vote for the treaty, 29 per cent would vote against it, 22 per cent do not know and 9 per cent would not vote, according to the poll.
This indicates a sharp turnaround from the referendum result last June, when the treaty was rejected by a margin of 53.9 per cent to 46.1 per cent. Just 15.8 per cent of the electorate voted Yes, 18.5 per cent voted No and 65.7 per cent abstained or cast spoiled votes. The turnout was just under 35 per cent, the lowest in any EU referendum.
While this latest poll shows that more voters are now in favour of the treaty than are opposed to it, this will not give the Yes side unqualified confidence in advance of a possible autumn re-run of the referendum. This is because opinion polls during the last campaign initially showed an even larger pro-treaty view, but that support was whittled away during the campaign, leading to the defeat of Nice.
However, there has been significant movement towards pro-EU sentiment since the Nice Treaty campaign, according to the poll. Offered two positions from which to choose, 51 per cent said the statement that "Ireland should do all it can to unite fully with the EU" came closest to their view of Ireland's status within the EU. Some 33 per cent said the statement that "Ireland should do all it can to protect its independence from the EU" came closest to their view. Eight per cent did not know and 8 per cent had no opinion.
This shows an increase in support for the pro-EU position compared to the two opinion polls during the Nice Treaty campaign. In the first Irish Times/MRBI poll of the campaign, 46 per cent of the electorate chose the pro-EU statement while 41 per cent opted for the pro-independence statement.
A fortnight later, there was even less support for the pro-EU option, with 43 per cent going for the pro-independence statement, putting it marginally ahead of the integrationist position.
Asked how they had voted last June, 28 per cent said they had voted Yes, 24 per cent said they had voted No, 40 per cent said they did not vote and 8 per cent did not know or could not remember.
These figures seriously understate the level of abstention and overstate the Yes vote compared to the No vote. The poll, which was conducted last Monday and Tuesday among a national quota sample of 1,000 electors, covering every constituency, shows differences between supporters of the different parties. The breakdown is: Fianna Fáil 44/26 now in favour of the treaty; Fine Gael 45/29 in favour; Labour 51/25 in favour; PDs 65/15 in favour; Others 43/35 against.
Support for the Nice Treaty and the pro-integrationist position on the EU is highest in the better-off ABC1 social category and lowest among farmers.