The results of a rocket test over the Pacific Ocean today may determine if the US will go ahead with a controversial nuclear missile shield. Russia and China have protested to the US that such a system would violate the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty (ABM).
The Chinese Prime Minister, Mr Zhu Rongji, has warned the US that China is "categorically opposed" to a theatre missile defence system which could be used to defend Taiwan. This would be a "blatant interference in Chinese affairs," he said yesterday.
But the US will put forward arguments for a limited anti-missile defence (AMD) against countries such as North Korea when arms control talks resume today between Washington and Beijing. President Clinton is supposed to decide later this year on whether the US will begin deployment of an AMD estimated to cost $60 billion over five years. The system would involve 100 interceptor missiles and a radar site in Alaska which could detect and destroy a nuclear attack from North Korea and possibly Iraq and Iran.
While the Pentagon is urging the Clinton administration to go ahead with this plan, there is increasing criticism from defence experts that AMD would be a costly failure.
A group of 50 Nobel prize winners has signed an open letter to Mr Clinton urging him to reject AMD as it would "offer little protection and would do grave harm to this nation's core security interests". They say that North Korea has recently taken steps towards reconciliation with South Korea.
The debate on AMD has intensified in the US because of the presidential election. The Republican candidate, Governor George Bush, favours a national missile defence system against attacks from any country and not just the so-called "rogue nations" such as North Korea. At the same time, Mr Bush supports increased nuclear disarmament to be worked out with Russia.
Mr Clinton does not want to leave the Vice-President, Mr Al Gore, exposed to Republican criticism that the Democrats are "soft" on nuclear defence as the election campaign hots up. The President's hands are also tied to some extent as Congress has already voted for a nuclear defence shield but left the timing on deployment to the President.
In the arms control talks in Beijing today and tomorrow, the US is expected to press China on concerns that it is helping Pakistan build nuclear missiles to counter the threat from India. China has transferred nuclear-capable M-11 missiles to Pakistan and is still supplying materials according to US intelligence reports.
The US Congress is now threatening to apply sanctions against China if these reports prove true. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said this week that reports of continued assistance to Pakistan were "unfounded".
Russia has formally confirmed its ratification of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), officials said yesterday, welcoming the move as an "important step" towards the accord's implementation. Russia is the 58th signatory to ratify the treaty and the 29th of a group of the 44 states whose ratification is necessary for the treaty to enter into force.