US sabre-rattling over Tehran's nuclear programme fuels EU anxiety

European Diary: The world's attention will be focused on Iraq next Sunday when that country holds its first elections since the US-led invasion and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.

In many European capitals, however, the future of Iraq's powerful neighbour, Iran, is the source of greater anxiety.

European fears that the US could launch a military strike against Iran reached a new pitch last week when Washington failed to deny a report by the investigative journalist Seymour Hersh that it had been gathering intelligence on Iranian targets in preparation for such action.

US Vice-President Dick Cheney fuelled European anxiety last Thursday when he spoke about the threat Washington sees in Tehran's nuclear programme. "You look around at potential trouble spots, Iran is right at the top of the list," he said.

Mr Cheney warned that, if the US did not act to prevent Iran developing a nuclear weapons capability, Israel could attack the Islamic state "and let the rest of the world worry about cleaning up the military mess afterwards".

Tehran appeared untroubled by the noises from Washington, describing them as part of a "psychological war". Some European diplomats are equally relaxed, viewing US posturing as part of a transatlantic "good cop, bad cop" routine aimed at persuading Tehran to abandon its nuclear ambitions.

Germany, France and Britain, with the support of the rest of the EU, have been negotiating with Iran for months, offering the prospect of closer economic and political ties if Tehran agrees to abandon any nuclear activity which could lead to the development of a weapons capability.

The European trio won a partial success last November when Iran agreed to a "voluntary" moratorium on uranium enrichment. The International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN's Vienna-based nuclear watchdog, says that none of Iran's declared nuclear materials are being put to improper use, but the agency admits that it cannot guarantee that no undeclared materials are being used for the development of weapons.

Berlin, Paris and London harbour few illusions about the character of their Iranian interlocutors and senior political figures admit privately that the European diplomatic effort could fail. European governments share Washington's fear that an Iranian nuclear capability could trigger an atomic arms race throughout the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and even Syria being tempted to follow Tehran's example.

Germany, France and Britain also acknowledge that the unspoken threat of US military action can assist their diplomatic endeavours by increasing pressure on Iran. All three governments agree, however, that any actual attacks on suspected nuclear facilities in Iran would be a recipe for disaster throughout the region.

Britain's foreign secretary, Mr Jack Straw, voiced these concerns to the incoming US Secretary of State, Dr Condoleezza Rice, in Washington yesterday, and Germany's Mr Joschka Fischer will be bringing a similar message from Berlin when he meets her today.

The tension over Iran comes as Washington is seeking to repair relationships with Europe which were severely damaged by the invasion of Iraq. President Bush is to visit Brussels next month, travelling on to Mainz for talks with Mr Gerhard Schröder. Some US commentators say Washington hopes that a charm offensive will weaken Mr Schröder's alliance with the French president, Mr Jacques Chirac.

Some elements in Berlin are undoubtedly eager to repair the alliance with Washington, which has been - along with the Franco-German relationship - one of the twin pillars of German foreign policy for half a century.

Mr Schröder is unlikely to abandon Mr Chirac, however, not least because he needs French support during two major EU negotiations this year - on reforming the Stability and Growth Pact and agreeing the EU's new seven-year budget plan.

The Iraq war remains deeply unpopular throughout Europe and, as he faces federal elections next year, Mr Schröder will be reluctant to enter into too close an embrace with an American president who is anathema to most German voters.

Even Mr Bush's closest European ally, Mr Tony Blair, will find it difficult to back any US military action against Iran, particularly with a general election expected in May. Indeed, the main effect of the US sabre-rattling could be to unite Europeans in opposition to a new war, to strengthen the EU's common foreign policy and to weaken an already troubled transatlantic alliance.