The first phase of the war in Afghanistan is being conducted by intense air-strikes and missile attacks on Taliban and al-Qaeda military assets. With virtual air supremacy achieved, the United States and Britain will now proceed to the next phase of the campaign. The assault formation assembled in the region by the US and Britain gives vital clues as to their war aims and likely tactics over the coming winter. The exact composition of the assault formation makes for interesting reading.
The Americans have deployed four major aircraft carrier battle groups to the region. They include the USS Theodore Roosevelt, USS Kitty Hawk, USS Enterprise and USS Carl Vinson Battle Groups. Each battle group has an average of two squadrons of F-14 and F-18 aircraft at its disposal. In addition, each battle group is escorted by an average of two Los Angeles-class submarines and five destroyers with the capability of launching roughly 500 conventional land attack Tomahawk missiles.
The British have also deployed a large carrier task group to the region. This deployment coincided with the British army exercise "Saif Sareena" in Oman. The British carrier task group including HMS Illustrious, and the helicopter carrier HMS Ocean is now deployed on an operational footing to the region. The carrier task group also has a number of special operations capable (SOC) ground troops at its disposal. These include 3 Commando Brigade consisting of 40 and 45 Commando and the 3 Commando Helicopter Force. The presence of special forces in the British build-up is matched by special forces in the US deployment.
In Uzbekistan, at the Karshi military base 100 miles north of the Afghan border, there are approximately 2,000 US troops. These include troops of the US army's 10th Mountain Division. The purpose of these troops is to secure US military air assets deployed to Uzbekistan.
This deployment of troops is a small one in conventional military terms and does not appear to represent the type of concentration required for large-scale ground action in Afghanistan. It pales into insignificance compared to the vast concentration of troops assembled by the Coalition Forces during operations "Desert Shield" and "Desert Storm" during the Gulf War. These troops will be used as a rapidly deployable "force protection" element allowing the US the flexibility to strike at other targets and jurisdictions throughout central Asia. The ground formations deployed by the US and British, in terms of numbers and unit designation, appear to indicate the use of special forces in covert or special operations over the coming months.
US special forces deployed to the region include the 15th Marine Expeditionary Unit, (Special Operations Capable) normally stationed at Camp Pendleton, California. This unit is currently embarked to the region. With the Marines are a mix of AV-8B Harrier attack planes, AH-1W Super Cobra attack helicopters, CH-46 Sea Knight helicopters, CH-53 Sea Stallion helicopters and UH-1N Huey helicopters. The Pentagon has also confirmed that other special forces units such as specialised SEAL teams, Delta Force, 82nd Airborne, Special Force Green Berets and Rangers have been deployed.
It is also rumoured that the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment is on its way to the region. This unit is specifically trained and equipped to conduct covert night operations in hostile environments. The 160th SOAR unit is equipped with the latest night-flying and stealth-modified helicopters including the MH and OH-6, MH-60 Crash Hawk and MH 47 troop-carrying helicopter.
This assembly of special forces indicates that the US and British intend to conduct special operations in Afghanistan. This represents an entirely different type of campaign than, say, the large conventional operations witnessed during the Gulf War.
In short, the US and British are not going to invade Afghanistan as such. They will, however, launch irregular search and destroy missions deep inside Afghan territory. They will also mount operations designed to target high-profile and sensitive Taliban and al-Qaeda infrastructure and personnel. They will mount attempts to capture or lift high-profile terrorist suspects. To achieve such an objective would prove of immense psychological and political value to the US administration.
These special forces infiltration and extraction operations will be airborne. The troops will be ferried into Afghan territory on the stealth-modified and night-capable helicopters already en route to the region. Although heavily armed and armoured, these helicopters will require the air support of the many F-14 and F-18 jets in-theatre. With Diego Garcia airbase at its disposal, the US will also be able to deploy F-117 Stealth fighter bombers in support of these operations.
This approach to the battlefield is defined by the US military as "third-generation" warfare. It represents a departure from the fixed lines and massive concentration of force as seen in previous conventional operations such as the Gulf War. In US military-speak, it represents the highly mobile and "non-linear" response identified as necessary for the "asymmetrical" war being waged by Osama Bin Laden.
In parallel with these operations will be the provision of close air support, arms and equipment to the Northern Alliance. The US and British will support the Northern Alliance in its attempts to oust the current Taliban regime. This grouping consists of a loose alliance of Panjshiris, anti-Taliban Pashtuns, Uzbeks and Hazaras.
At present, approximately 13,000 of the Northern Alliance mujahideen are advancing on Kabul. The support of these forces, in theory, will yield a number of strategically valuable outcomes for the US and British. Crucially, it will obviate the requirement for the US and Britain to commit large numbers of ground troops for a conventional offensive in Afghanistan.
There is ample evidence that US and British public opinion and political will might not sustain such an approach. The US in particular will be keen to follow on lessons learned in Vietnam in this respect. Towards the end of the war in Vietnam, the US pursued a policy of "Vietnamisation". In other words, arming and equipping the army of the Republic of Vietnam against the North Vietnamese army and Viet Cong.
This approach allowed for the withdrawal of US troops from the conflict and, in essence, left the fighting in Vietnam to the Vietnamese themselves. History records the outcome of that policy. The US, in backing the Northern Alliance would appear to be pursuing a latter-day policy of Vietnamisation in Afghanistan.
The concept of saving Afghanistan from starvation and the Taliban will have a very powerful impact on world opinion. This outcome would be perceived in the United States as a great victory in the ongoing war against international terrorism. It would be a blow to those in the Middle East and central Asia seeking to mobilise Islamic fundamentalism as a unifying discourse of opposition to the west.
Events in Afghanistan over the coming weeks will be crucial to the medium and long term prosecution of the United States's war on international terrorism. The US will be under immense pressure to ensure the speedy collapse of the Taliban. This collapse will be presented as necessary in order to combat international terrorism and avert a humanitarian disaster.
Tom Clonan was a Captain in the Defence Forces. He now lectures in the Political Economy of Communications in the Institute of Technology, Tallaght