Transport strategy is reappraised as car-use forecasts are exceeded

The Dublin Transportation Office has announced it is undertaking a "fundamental reappraisal" of the current transport strategy for the city, because it was based on forecasts which are now "very much off target."

Major "slippage" in the implementation of key elements of the Dublin Transportation Initiative's strategy, coupled with an unprecedented increase in car ownership and use, has created a "transportation deficit," according to the DTO in a review published yesterday.

It estimates that an extra 49,000 car trips, over and above DTI forecasts, are being made in the morning peak period throughout the greater Dublin area (including parts of Meath, Kildare and Wicklow). Of these, 12,000 are to the city centre.

The level of transportation demand is increasing at almost double the rate originally predicted by the DTI's final report in 1994, mainly because of much higher economic growth, lower unemployment and a larger population than anticipated.

The tonnage of freight going through Dublin Port is almost double what was predicted for 2001, putting more pressure on the road network.

Passenger numbers at Dublin Airport have also far exceeded expectations, with levels close to those projected for 2011.

Figures show a very substantial increase of 39 per cent in travel by car over that forecast for the year 2001, with a corresponding loss in market share for public transport.

This is "manifested in ever-increasing congestion", particularly at peak hours.

According to the DTO, these trends are "unsustainable and not acceptable to the public at large." If allowed to continue unchecked and if no action is taken, it says, the overall transportation deficit will increase to about 65,000 peak-hour car trips by 2002.

In order to address this deficit and prevent even higher levels of traffic congestion throughout the greater Dublin area, the DTO has published a short-term action plan to be implemented over the next two years at an overall cost of £172 million.

The Minister for the Environment, Mr Dempsey, who was presented with a copy of the plan yesterday, said £146 million had already been earmarked for various projects and the Government would be addressing ways of funding the balance of £26 million.

Although neither he nor the Minister for Public Enterprise, Ms O'Rourke, gave a firm commitment that the extra money would be found, Mr Dempsey said the Government was determined that the aims of the short-term action plan would be realised.

The principal objective is to transfer 37,000 personal trips by car to public transport, cycling or walking.

Mr John Henry, the DTO's director, conceded yesterday that it would be a miracle if this was achieved, but he said there was no alternative.

The DTO review warns that unless the transportation deficit is addressed by immediate, short-term measures, peak-hour congestion will continue to increase and spread even farther out from the city centre, with commuters having to start their journeys earlier to avoid the worst of it.

Without proper on-street bus priority measures, the DTO fears that buses will become an even less popular choice for commuting.

"This will lead to even greater levels of car usage, adding to greater congestion, the classic transport vicious circle," it has warned.

It says the action plan is urgently required to accelerate those elements of the DTI strategy that can be completed within two years. In the meantime, work is to continue on a fundamental reappraisal of the entire strategy, reporting by the end of 1999.

The action plan is intended to fill the gap until major infrastructural projects, such as completion of the M50 motorway, the Dublin Port Tunnel and the Luas light rail system, come into operation. These have been delayed for a variety of reasons by between two and four years.

However, the DTO maintains that all 10 quality bus corridors recommended in 1994 will be operational by the end of 1999. In addition, over 60km of cycle track has been completed, with a further 100km to be in use within the next two years.

The Minister for Public Enterprise said that the bulk of the public transport recommendations of the action plan have already been given the go-ahead, mainly with the aid of funds reallocated from the Luas project. More funding may be released in the Budget.

Implementation of such rail measures as upgrading the Maynooth line and providing additional DART and suburban rolling stock would increase peak-hour capacity by 11,300, while improvements to Dublin Bus services would increase their capacity by a further 21,600.