The army is calling the shots

ALTHOUGH Ms Benazir Bhutto's dismissal is not technically a military coup, there is no doubt it had the full support of Pakistan…

ALTHOUGH Ms Benazir Bhutto's dismissal is not technically a military coup, there is no doubt it had the full support of Pakistan's long politicised army, writes Jonathan Steele. The precision with which it was done - after midnight and with all airports and broadcasting stations shut down and under army guard - makes it clear that the military was on full alert and running the show.

More than that, the army high command was the main impetus behind President Farooq Leghari's move. Gen Jehangir Karamat, the army chief, recently gave him a list of politicians the army wanted investigated for corruption - including Ms Bhutto, her husband and opposition leaders.

Between Pakistani independence in 1947 and the end of its third war with India in 1971, the army ruled for much of the time. After an interlude of civilian rule under Ms Bhutto's father, another military regime seized power in 1977, under Gen Zia ul Haq. His administration amended Pakistan's constitution to give the president the powers which were used on Tuesday, so that even an elected government could be dismissed with a veneer of legality.

The army's motivation this time was not just anger over corruption (a charge often made by military men) but also over the Bhutto government's failure to stem the power of the country's feudal landlords.

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Ironically, the International Monetary Fund, which has been negotiating with the government over a new stand by loan for months, wanted measures which the once populist but land wealthy Bhuttos refused to take. It argued for higher taxes on agriculture in a country where landowners last year paid less than £100,000 in wealth tax, or roughly 0.0036 per cent of the direct taxes collected.

In a population of 130 million there are only 100,000 registered taxpayers.

The army, made up largely of lower middle and middle class professionals, favoured the agricultural tax - especially when the alternative was a curb on their own spending. Defence eats up more than a quarter of the budget.

The government's failure to cut the budget deficit as well as the growing surplus of imports over exports was threatening Pakistan's credit worthiness. The country has one of the world's highest foreign debts, with reserves falling fast.

Faced with these problems, the army leaders do not want to take full power, seeming to prefer a civilian government of technocrats which will do the IMF's bidding.

Nevertheless, it looks highly unlikely that President Leghari's promise of elections within three months will be honoured. There are many ways of postponing them.

President Leghari signalled on Tuesday that he wants the corruption allegations against members of the dismissed government and other politicians cleared up first. These are bound to take time in the courts.

While these cases drag on, the army will be watching closely to make sure that the caretakers it helped to install do take care.