Eight million Chileans will vote on Sunday to elect a new President to lead the country for the next six years. The long time front runner, Ricardo Lagos, of the governing Concertacion coalition, has faced a surprisingly strong challenge from the right-wing Alliance for Chile candidate Joaquin Lavin in recent weeks. There are six candidates in the race with only Lagos and Lavin having a realistic chance.
Lavin is an influential member of Opus Dei, father of eight children and founder of the Pinochet-supporting UDI. Lagos is a member of the Socialist Party, an atheist, a member of the Allende government ousted by Pinochet, and was arrested in 1986 by the general's security forces. But nobody mentioned the coup. Instead both candidates focussed on seeking the centre vote, a process that had the two candidates in difficulties with their own supporters. Lagos's attempt to present himself as the candidate of many parties, and representing the views of the entire Concertacion government, has not worked. In particular, that government's defence of Pinochet on the grounds of national sovereignty, following his arrest last year in London on Spanish charges of human rights violations, has been a headache for the Socialist Party, traditionally human rights champions in direct opposition to Pinochet's regime.
At the same time Lavin tried to distance himself from Pinochet, apologising for human rights abuses during the dictatorship, for which he in turn was censured by his own supporters.
Since the centre-left Concertacion took over the reins of power from Gen Pinochet in March 1990, both subsequent presidents have been from the powerful Christian Democrats (PDC). But the PDC nominee, Andres Zaldivar, lost heavily last May to Lagos as Concertacion candidate. Since then, not all PDC members have been enthusiastic supporters of his candidature.
With polls showing Lavin gaining on him, Lagos remembered the coup and began television spots showing shots of Lavin first pronouncing the need for democracy, followed by earlier footage of Lavin proclaiming his allegiance to Pinochet.
In a move to breath new life into Lagos's campaign, President Eduardo Frei attempted to change Chile's draconian labour laws. These laws, introduced during the military dictatorship, forbid the vast majority of Chile's workers from joining a union or having collective bargaining power. But the Bill was defeated by the opposition parties. Bringing up the labour reform issue, which has lain dormant in the Senate for five years, was a political gambit to show that Lavin's support for the labour vote was not shared by the political parties supporting his candidature. It also demonstrated that reforms proposed by the Concertacion government are regularly thwarted in the Senate by an opposition aided by Pinochet's designated senators. But this tactic may not be enough to gain Lagos the necessary 50 per cent plus one to gain the presidency in the first round of the election on Sunday.
In that event these two candidates will fight it out on January 12th next. The latest poll, released on Tuesday, shows Lagos within striking distance of an outright victory with 48 per cent of the vote. Lavin had just 39.6 per cent in this poll. The key to Lagos's election may lie with Gladys Marin, who has run an excellent campaign for the Communist Party. Marin looks set to gain as much as 7 per cent of the Chilean vote, in which case it is unlikely that Lagos will be elected tomorrow.
Chile's once-powerful communist party was decimated by the Pinochet regime, and since the return of transitional democracy has seen its potential diminished by election laws designed to limit smaller parties' access to Congress. But on this occasion, many people of the left, who have become disillusioned with the Concertacion, may take the opportunity of postponing Lagos's election to the new millennium.