Can Fine Gael recover from recent gaffes and jolt Fianna Fáil out of its waiting-game strategy, asks Mark Hennessy
Ten years ago, the family of Kitty Collins O'Mahony, who was by then in a nursing home, turned the television off every time the RTÉ evening news bulletins began. The mother of then minister for justice Nora Owen, Collins O'Mahony used to get terribly upset by Fianna Fáil's John O'Donoghue's attacks upon her daughter.
O'Donoghue's conduct frequently bordered on the vicious. Certainly, it was targeted, personal, sustained and, ultimately, probably successful.
The conduct of a decade ago is worth recalling as Fianna Fáil now sighs, complaining with weary sadness that Fine Gael has adopted US-style "negative campaigning" six months or less from an election.
Featuring the slogan "Everything Is Just Great!", the Fine Gael billboard targets crime levels and the performance of the Tánaiste, Minister for Justice, and Progressive Democrats leader Michael McDowell. Planned for months, the roadside posters had been intended to kick-start Fine Gael's election campaign in the first week of the New Year, following a few dismal months.
Costing approximately €150,000, the posters - the third set Fine Gael has done in less than a year - had certainly been planned to raise a stir, and they had begun to garner significant media attention. Instead, the party ended the week struggling to cope with Waterford TD John Deasy's decision to start a hare about party leader Enda Kenny's hold on the leadership if he fails to win power.
Deasy's intervention, damaging as it was, could probably have been sustained if Fine Gael had slapped him down quickly, and issued an edict to everyone else to toe the party line and sing the leader's praises.
Instead, Meath TD Damien English went off half-cocked, as he allowed himself to be entangled in the controversy by even indulging in a conversation about possible post-election leadership change.
Now, Kenny looks ineffectual to the non-politically interested audience (that is, the vast majority), even though the politically aware know that the controversy is one with little substance - at least this side of an election.
Privately, Fine Gael colleagues, and much of the organisation, would string Deasy from the nearest telegraph pole, if given the opportunity - such is the scale of their annoyance.
Pampered as the "bright young thing" on his 2002 election, Deasy was brought in, given the frontbench justice portfolio, which he could not handle, and was mauled by Michael McDowell, only then to behave like a child over the smoking ban.
Sadly, it should have been so different. Far from being without talent, the articulate Deasy could very easily have been the "new generation" face of Fine Gael if he had listened to wiser counsel - and he was not short of receiving it.
Already, English has been made to grovel, and Kenny last night wrote to Deasy warning him of the standards he expects in future, though Deasy now probably has less and less incentive to comply, given the number of bridges he has burnt. Still, Fine Gael looks amateurish.
MEANWHILE, THE SAGA has diverted attention away from the party's attempt to put some momentum back into its bid for power - a momentum that was there up to the summer, but evaporated in the controversy about Bertie Ahern's finances.
Designed to be controversial, the billboards are the first of a two-pronged strategy to be laid out over coming months, says party strategist Frank Flannery.
In summary, Fine Gael will be negative and then positive. The public, it believes, must be given reasons to be unhappy with the Government, before they will accept new solutions.
Though some in Fianna Fáil talk as if some morally dubious Rubicon has been crossed, little is new about FG's strategy - other than a greater reliance on tabloid language.
Back in 1987, Fianna Fáil's election poster was blunt: "Health Cuts Hurt the Old, the Sick and the Handicapped". And it was successful, helping to keep the Fine Gael-Labour coalition on the defensive.
So what exactly is "negative campaigning"? In the United States, it is generally understood to mean attacking a politician because of his private life, his background, or a personal characteristic.
Fine Gael's problem is not whether the new billboard is morally questionable, or not. Rather it is whether voters believe, or can be persuaded to believe, that things are awful, need to be changed and that Fine Gael should do the job.
So far, advance publicity alone has made it a success, though the two poster campaigns last year failed to make any noticeable impact, other than to raise questions about the amount of make-up used on Enda Kenny.
"The Government wants a cosy consensus to emerge about its record, that everyone will accept that everything is generally rosy in the garden. Well, we don't accept that," said Mr Flannery.
"If we can legitimately get people to focus on the Government's record, then we can legitimately ask them whether the Government should be trusted with the remaining years of Ireland's prosperity," he went on.
IN REALITY, FINE Gael, like the team 1-0 down in the final 20 minutes, has to chase the ball and take risks. Blessed by good economic figures, and good luck, the Government holds many of the aces.
While Fine Gael stirs quickly back into action after the Christmas break, Fianna Fáil is content to adopt a lower profile, at least in terms of expensive, high-profile campaigns so early in the campaign.
Back in 2002, things were so very different. Fianna Fáil spent hundreds of thousands of euro on posters even before the official opening of hostilities, as Bertie Ahern travelled the highways and byways.
Five years on, Bertie Ahern is still spending two days a week meeting and greeting voters, but the party has so far spent nothing on advertising, partly believing that Election 2007 will be won by a more sober campaign.
Back in 2002, Fianna Fáil's general election director PJ Mara landed in a little hot water when he launched the party's campaign in the Shelbourne Hotel, declaring: "It's showtime, folks." A similarly "chatty" attitude will not do this time. Instead, Fianna Fáil wants to wrap the mantle of sober government around its flanks, swatting away the attentions of less experienced opponents.
Though some in Fianna Fáil have become cocky following opinion polls, Bertie Ahern and those closest to him, such as Brian Cowen, are unlikely to make the same mistake.
Privately, Fianna Fáil, particularly PJ Mara, are happy to argue that the election is a done deal, though this is not arrogance, but rather a wish to get journalists convinced the game is over before it even begins.
The majority of the public has not turned its attention yet to politics, though there are enough signals of looming danger around - such as rising interest rates - for an Opposition to make noise.
"Fianna Fáil has shot its bolt. The last Budget is gone. From now on, their promises have the same value as our promises, except that they have not delivered on theirs," said Flannery, acknowledging propaganda.
Fianna Fáil is playing a waiting game, believing that the game is theirs to lose. Fine Gael needs a break, and one must come quickly.
Time for Enda Kenny is not gone, but it is running out.