ISRAEL’S POLITICAL future was no clearer after yesterday’s counting of soldiers’ ballots produced no change in the overall allocation of seats.
The favourite to head the next government, Binyamin Netanyahu, leader of the right-wing Likud party, was hoping for a repeat of previous elections, when the soldiers added one or two seats to the right-wing bloc.
Likud remained with 27 seats in the 120-member Knesset, one fewer than the centrist Kadima, led by the foreign minister, Tzipi Livni.
When President Shimon Peres consults party representatives next week, it looks like Kadima will be the only party recommending Ms Livni to head the next government.
Likud representatives are exerting pressure on the other right-wing and religious parties to publicly endorse Mr Netanyahu. Most parties are reluctant to do so at this juncture, hoping to squeeze more concessions out of the Likud negotiators, such as more attractive cabinet portfolios or policy commitments.
The key to any coalition remains Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of the far-right Yisrael Beiteinu, the third-largest party, which won 15 seats.
Mr Lieberman was revelling in his new role as Israel’s political kingmaker. He told Israel radio he had already made up his mind who to recommend for prime minister, but he would not reveal his choice until after he met Mr Peres.
Commentators said it is entirely possible that the maverick Mr Liebermann would recommend himself as Israel’s next premier.
Adding to the constitutional mess Israel faces is the fact that the police are investigating Mr Lieberman on suspicion of serious fraud.
He is certain to demand a major portfolio in return for joining the government, but the justice or public security (police) ministries are off-limits, following a decision by the Attorney General that no minister can preside over a ministry that may lead an investigation into him or her.
Likud officials expressed frustration that Ms Livni had still not come to terms with the fact that Mr Netanyahu would be the next prime minister. Mr Netanyahu is expected to ask Kadima to join his coalition and make it an offer that will be difficult to refuse – the defence and foreign affairs portfolios.
However, some leading Kadima politicians argued that the party should join Labor on the opposition benches, rather than grant legitimacy to a right-wing, religious Netanyahu government.