Sinn Féin in retreat needs to regroup

Party analysis: In times of trouble, Sinn Féin has a tendency of putting its head down, committing itself to working harder …

Party analysis:In times of trouble, Sinn Féin has a tendency of putting its head down, committing itself to working harder and suffering tunnel vision.

Such an attitude will not help it come to terms with the verdict of the Republic's electorate, one that fundamentally changes its future south of the border.

Before Thursday, every other party believed that Sinn Féin would make gains on its five outgoing seats. Some said eight. Some said 10. None predicted a loss. Instead, it lost Seán Crowe in Dublin South West and saw Aengus Ó Snodaigh elected without reaching the quota after a struggle in Dublin South Central.

Its grand hopes for Mary Lou McDonald in Dublin Central collapsed after she received 1,800 fewer votes than Nicky Keogh won there in 2002, and then got few transfers.

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In Donegal North East, Pádraig Mac Lochlainn added more than 3,000 to his 2002 first preference tally, only to be defeated by Fine Gael's Joe McHugh. Nearby, in Donegal South West, Pearse Doherty secured 8,462 votes, adding nearly 6,000 to his 2002 first preference result, but it still was not enough.

However, his real rise is less because his 2002 tally was reduced by the 2,630 votes received at the time by the then Independent, Thomas Pringle, who later joined Sinn Féin. Nevertheless, O'Doherty's total would have been enough in other times to have won on Friday, but he suffered from the massively increased vote of Fine Gael's Dinny McGinley.

On the northside of Dublin, the situation was even worse, where Larry O'Toole failed in Dublin North East and Dessie Ellis in neighbouring North West. While O'Toole won 1,300 more votes than in 2002, receiving 4,661, he received a poor share of the Green Party's David Healy's transfer before falling at the third count. Dessie Ellis needed a much increased first preference vote on 2002 to win - given the lack of potential transfers - but he managed to add fewer than 100 votes.

In Waterford, David Cullinane, one of the party's strong hopes, managed to add just 350 votes to his 2002 result, and then pulled in fewer than 1,000 transfers before his chance expired. In Wexford, New Ross-based John O'Dwyer equally failed to get far enough up the electoral poll to stay in, receiving 5,068 first preferences - just over 100 more than five years ago, but he again failed to attract transfers, finding fewer than 400 from limited available sources before going out.

Though the results will be much perused, all of them cannot be put down to Sinn Féin being caught in the vice-grip of strong Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil showings. The "squeeze factor" does explain some of the party's difficulties, but seats in working-class areas such as Dublin North West should have been ripe for the taking.

So what has happened? In places such as Tallaght the working class has become middle class or at least possessed of middle-class aspirations. Jobs are more plentiful, mortgages secured. Some who voted for Sinn Féin before now have assets to protect.

Equally, Sinn Féin failed to convince those who voted for them in local elections to do so for the Dáil. "They see us as councillors, not as TDs," complained one SF source. The poor showing was privately feared by a minority in Sinn Féin's Parnell Square headquarters days before voting, though none forecast its scale.

While party leader Gerry Adams' poor TV debate showing turned off many who saw it, it had just as damaging a "viral" impact as word spread to those who had not. "He was too programmed, too packaged. He is better off the cuff. So, too, is Mary Lou.

"We have to show more passion. People like the Greens' Eamon Ryan show it. We must too. We must show people why we are right. Because we are not going to change our views," said one party councillor.

But Sinn Féin has had many bad days. May 25th is a day significant for many in Sinn Féin since it marks the anniversary of Cllr Eddie Fullerton's murder in Donegal in 1991. "We have had a lot of bad days. Friday was one. We must regroup, and do things differently. We can't continue to do everything like we did," he said.