Britain: British public opinion has further shifted behind the war against Iraq despite Saturday's big anti-war demonstration in central London, writes Frank Millar
Two opinion polls yesterday put support for the military action variously at 56 per cent and 60 per cent in a sharp reversal of the pre-conflict sentiment.
Police estimates suggested that at least 200,000 people converged on Hyde Park in a protest this time notable for its political activist and hard-left support. The organisers, the Stop the War Coalition, claimed that the turnout was 400,000 - twice the police estimate. However, even if the police figure was more accurate, the organisers were justified in claiming a major success at just three days' notice following the onset of war.
Rallies were also held in Birmingham, Manchester, Cardiff and Glasgow and some 5,000 people gathered at RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire - from which B-52 bombers launch their raids on Iraq - where crowds laid flowers at the gate to mark the "death of democracy".
Prime Minister Tony Blair's calculation that public opinion would follow parliamentary approval for the war appears to have been borne out by the latest polls, which confirm a turnaround since British forces became actively involved in the fighting.
The YouGov poll for the Sunday Times found 56 per cent saying that Britain and America were right to go to war, with 36 per cent saying they were wrong and 8 per cent undecided. ICM's survey for the News of the World found 60 per cent backing for the war with 37 per cent opposed. Both polls were almost a mirror of the findings just two weeks ago, when opposition to Mr Blair's policy on Iraq stood at 57 per cent.
YouGov's survey found support for war still stronger among men than women, while shared across all age groups and among Labour and Conservative supporters.
Liberal Democrats remain opposed to war, although the Lib Dem leader - who has pledged total support for the British forces in action - decided not to take part in Saturday's anti-war protest. Mr Robin Cook, who quit the cabinet last Monday in opposition to war without UN authority, also declined an invitation to address the protesters.
With last month's first-time protesters from middle-class backgrounds conspicuously missing from Saturday's demonstration, YouGov was finding admiration for Tony Blair up by 36 per cent, as opposed to 29 per cent who said that their respect had diminished.
Despite warnings from Mr Blair that the conflict might last longer than predicted, the expectation among 70 per cent is that it will be short, although 39 per cent also expect heavy casualties. Some 45 per cent expressed confidence that the war would make the world a safer place, as against 35 per cent who said it would not, while 63 per cent disapproved of young people leaving school to participate in anti-war protests.
Importantly for Mr Blair, the survey also provided evidence that the British public is listening carefully to his commitments about the post-conflict situation in Iraq and in the region. Mr Blair is seen as more genuine than President Bush in his commitment to rebuild Iraq and to pursue an Israeli-Palestinian peace settlement.
In terms of domestic political threat there was also reassurance for the prime minister, with little evident enthusiasm for any of his potential successors. Some 24 per cent said that they would support Chancellor Gordon Brown in the event of Mr Blair standing down, with just 9 per cent favouring Mr Cook, ahead of 7 per cent for Foreign Secretary Jack Straw and 6 per cent for Home Secretary David Blunkett.