Failure by the Sinn Féin leadership to make an unconditional commitment to back the PSNI later today will raise further doubts about the Northern Ireland Assembly elections scheduled for March.
This became clear last night as Downing Street refused to be drawn on Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams's charge that the DUP had gone back on a deal to agree the timetable for the devolution of policing and justice powers to the Stormont Assembly.
Prime minister Tony Blair's official spokesman insisted they would not comment on any aspect of the confidential negotiations aimed at restoring power-sharing government to the North. And he maintained Mr Blair's continuing confidence that "if a Sinn Féin ardfheis clearly supports policing then there can be devolved government by March 26th and the devolution of policing powers by May 2008."
The spokesman added that, as Mr Blair indicated in his Irish Times article last Monday, "if either side pulls back then we will never know." But as Mr Adams vowed to find "another basis to move forward", Whitehall sources suggested Mr Blair had no interest in any "conditional" Sinn Féin position on policing that might now emerge from today's meeting of the party's ardchomhairle (executive).
Claiming that the DUP had failed to deliver expected words committing to the St Andrews timetable for the devolution of policing powers, Mr Adams said yesterday that "the basis of the ardcomhairle motion" passed on December 29th had "been removed" and that the party would now have "to find another basis to move forward". The suggestion of any deal or understanding was hotly disputed by the Rev Ian Paisley, who asserted: "I am not in the business of saying one thing in private and another in public."
The DUP leader as recently as Thursday repeated his clear view that the St Andrews Agreement contains a government aspiration but does not commit any party to ensure the transfer of policing powers by May 2008.
That simply added to the surprise at the sharpness of Mr Adams's comments, given claims by one senior DUP source earlier this week that they had not in fact been shown the terms of the ardcomhairle motion, despite promises that they would be.
Whitehall sources explained Downing Street's reluctance to provide any clarification, saying there were "always grey areas" in behind-the-scenes negotiations and that it was "never very helpful" to join public disputes between the parties.
However, as the public war of words raged between Sinn Féin and the DUP, the pressing political concern in London and Dublin was to discover what Mr Adams might now have in mind as a "sustainable" alternative way forward.
It was not immediately clear to what extent a threat to the scheduled Assembly elections would influence the Sinn Féin leadership's decisions today or at a special ardfheis. The Assembly elections were sought by Dr Paisley and sold at St Andrews by both governments as a means of providing electoral endorsement of a powersharing deal.