THREE senior Fianna Fail frontbench members are considered likely to be passed over when, as seems certain, Mr Bertie Ahern is elected Taoiseach and names his cabinet on Thursday.
The three seen in Fianna Fail circles as most likely to lose out are Mr Seamus Brennan, Mr Michael Smith and Mr Joe Walsh, as Mr Ahern attempts to bring some new faces into his first government. Mr Ahern is still finalising his cabinet, and some of the contenders may not know their fate until Thursday.
The cabinet may have as many as seven first time ministers. These will certainly include Mr John O'Donoghue, Mr Micheal Martin and Mr Dermot Ahern, while other probable newcomers are Dr Jim McDaid, Mr Martin Cullen and Ms Sile de Valera.
The Chief Whip post is expected to be given to one of three younger Dublin deputies: Mr Brian Lenihan, Mr Tom Kill or Mr Eoin Ryan. The two of these three who do not get the post are seen as outsiders for cabinet inclusion, as are Mr Chris Flood and Mr Willie O'Dea.
There has been speculation that Mr Eamon O Cuiv would be appointed as a Minister responsible for rural development, the Gaeltacht and the islands. But it now appears that this may be only a junior portfolio.
To ease the disappointment of some of those passed over, Mr Ahern has decided to give special designation to a number of junior ministers. Around seven such posts are likely to be established, including those responsible for science and technology, children and rural development.
What exactly the special designation will mean is unclear. Party sources say the holders of these posts will have complete responsibility for their own portfolios, answering to the Dail for their areas of responsibility.
With the Progressive Democrats leader, Ms Mary Harney, to be appointed Tanaiste and likely to get the Department of Enterprise, Employment and Trade, Mr Ahern has 13 cabinet positions to give to members of his party. Regarded as certainties are Mr Dermot Ahern, Mr Ray Burke, Mr Brian Cowen, Mr Noel Dempsey, Mr Charlie McCreevy, Mr Micheal Martin, Mr John O'Donoghue and Ms Mary O'Rourke.
This leaves five posts to be decided between Dr Michael Woods, Dr McDaid. Mr Martin Cullen, Ms de Valera, Mr O Cuiv and Mr David Andrews.
Mr Bobby Molloy will probably be a PD minister of state with the right to attend cabinet meetings, while Ms Liz O'Donnell is also expected to become a minister of state.
Senior Fianna Fail figures are expected to approach the Labour deputy, Mr Seamus Pattison, soon to offer him the Ceann Comhairle post. The party would like to see it going to its own Dr Rory O'Hanlon, but Dail arithmetic means Mr Ahern's minority government will need as many votes as it can muster.