The Japanese Prime Minister, Mr Junichiro Koizumi, and his opposition rivals campaigned yesterday on the penultimate day for an election that could determine the fate of his agenda for bold economic reform.
Mr Koizumi's ruling bloc must perform well in Sunday's voting for parliament's upper house to claim a mandate for change.
With the Prime Minister's popularity still at unprecedented levels of just under 70 per cent despite recent dips, the ruling coalition appears to be on track to keep its grip on the chamber, and Mr Koizumi's own Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) should fare well.
Unless, that is, the undecided voters swing against the tripartite coalition because of either disillusionment with Mr Koizumi's failure to flesh out his promises or fears that keeping them will spell too much social and economic discomfort.
"It is the fashion of the day to support the LDP," said the former trade minister, Mr Kaoru Yosano, who lost his lower-house seat in a poll last June when the hugely unpopular Mr Yoshiro Mori was prime minister.
"I hope the LDP will gain seats in the upper house, and as a result Mr Koizumi will surely have the momentum to carry out his various promises on reform," Mr Yosano commented.
Mr Koizumi's coalition government appears set to fare well and to win at least the 63 seats needed to maintain its upper-house majority. Voting is for a total of 121 seats.
An overwhelming victory for the LDP, however, could strengthen the hand of oldguard opponents to change, making it difficult for Mr Koizumi to press on with reforms. Economists say the reforms are needed to end a decade of stagnation, but will almost certainly damage an already deteriorating economy in the short term.
A Reuters poll of private economists yesterday showed that, even before reforms begin, Japan's unemployment rate is rising. Out of 12 economists surveyed, seven expected the rate to have reached the key level psychologically of 5 per cent in June, while the rest saw it holding at the current 4.9 per cent, the highest since records began in 1953.
Economic ills aside, Mr Koizumi has given himself a diplomatic dilemma with a promise to pay homage to Japan's war dead at Tokyo's Yasukuni shrine, where second World War criminals are also enshrined.
China and South Korea, victims of Japan's wartime aggression, are urging Mr Koizumi to call off the visit, which he says he will make on the August 15th anniversary of Japan's defeat in the war.
Mr Koizumi's outspoken Foreign Minister, Ms Makiko Tanaka, said on Thursday she would ask him to abandon the visit.
Coalition members in the Buddhist-backed New Komeito Party, concerned about violating the constitution's separation of religion and state, together with some LDP members, have also urged restraint.
The debate is grabbing headlines before the election, but may have less impact on voting behaviour than could be expected. A survey commissioned by the LDP showed about one in three people responding supported official visits to Yasukuni shrine, although only about 12 per cent did so strongly.