Romney win in Michigan leaves race wide open

US: Mitt Romney's victory over John McCain in Michigan's Republican primary has made the party's race for the presidency more…

US:Mitt Romney's victory over John McCain in Michigan's Republican primary has made the party's race for the presidency more unpredictable than ever ahead of South Carolina's crucial vote on Saturday.

Mr Romney's win has not only thrust him back into contention for the nomination but halted, at least for the moment, Mr McCain's surge after New Hampshire. Mr McCain remains the front runner in South Carolina but he faces a strong challenge from former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who came third in Michigan.

"Guess what they're doing in Washington?" Mr Romney told supporters at his victory rally in Michigan. "They're worrying, because they realise - the lobbyists and the politicians realise - that America now understands that Washington is broken, and we're going to do something about it."

In fact, Mr Romney is as close as possible to being the candidate of the Republican establishment in a party that is moving in at least three different directions. Mr McCain is the champion of many national security hawks, Mr Romney has the support of fiscal conservatives and Mr Huckabee is the choice of many social conservatives.

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Mr Romney won in Michigan by focusing on his appeal as a successful businessman who promises to apply his boardroom experience to turning around the US economy. He also won the support of many of the state's evangelical Christians, although he has all but conceded South Carolina's social conservatives to Mr Huckabee.

Mr McCain, who failed to persuade enough independents and Democrats to cross over into the Republican primary, hinted on Tuesday night that Mr Romney owed his victory in Michigan to the fact that he was a native son.

Polls showed, however, that concerns about the economy, which are especially acute in a state with the highest unemployment rate in the US, were decisive in swinging the race to Mr Romney.

"I now have more delegates than anybody else, a lot more votes for president than anybody else," Mr Romney said yesterday, declaring himself the national front runner.

National polls put him far behind Mr McCain and Mr Huckabee, however, and Mr Giuliani is still hoping that a victory in Florida on January 29th will jump-start his campaign to win in the big states that vote a week later.

The Michigan result will reinforce doubts about Mr McCain's chances of winning in states where Democrats and independents are not allowed to vote in the Republican primary and South Carolina has now become more important than ever for the Arizona senator.

No Republican has won the presidential nomination since 1980 without winning South Carolina, the first state in the south to hold a primary and Mr McCain's 2000 campaign met its Waterloo in the state when he lost there to George W Bush.

The Democrats did not campaign in Michigan after a row that saw the state stripped of its delegates at the national convention and only Hillary Clinton and Dennis Kucinich allowed their names to remain on the ballot.

Mrs Clinton won 55 per cent of the vote, compared to 40 per cent who ticked a box marked Uncommitted. In a sign that the row over race between Mrs Clinton and Mr Obama is having an impact within the African-American community, Mrs Clinton won only 26 per cent of black votes, compared to 70 per cent who voted Uncommitted.

Mrs Clinton's campaign manager, Patti Solis Doyle, said the former first lady was pleased with the Michigan result, even if it does not give her any more delegates at the convention.

Denis Staunton

Denis Staunton

Denis Staunton is China Correspondent of The Irish Times