Republicans will remember lesson of Dewey

The last time the Republicans had a convention in Philadelphia was in 1948 when they nominated Thomas Dewey who became the odds…

The last time the Republicans had a convention in Philadelphia was in 1948 when they nominated Thomas Dewey who became the odds-on favourite to beat Harry Truman, the Democratic incumbent.

But Dewey and the Republicans were too confident and underestimated Truman's homespun ability to communicate with the voters. The Republicans lost their fifth Presidential election in a row.

This time George W. Bush is also coming out of Phildelphia as the Republican candidate fancied to beat a Democratic incumbent - Al Gore has been Vice-President for the past eight years. But this time the Republicans know they have a real fight ahead.

Their convention went exactly as planned. George Bush got his bounce in the polls to leave him with a double-digit lead over Gore. But his time in the media spotlight will come the week after next at the Democratic Convention in Los Angeles.

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Bush has also shown by his acceptance speech that he is a formidable opponent. He had to show the electorate that he could be President in his own right and not just because his daddy was President.

Bush had also to show he has a real message for voters other than "it's time to get rid of Clinton-Gore". On both counts he appears to have succeeded. And he also worked hard to identify Gore as timid and unsure of himself, someone who has no other message than "You've never had it so good, so why change?"

This is Bush's biggest challenge. How to persuade Americans to change horses in the midst of a record economic boom that has coincided with eight years of Democrats in the White House.

One way was to make not so veiled references to the Monica Lewinsky scandal by pledging to "restore honour and integrity" to the Oval Office. Both Bush and his running mate, Dick Cheney, have hit this note in their speeches and there are rumbles Bush senior will weigh in as well if President Clinton keeps making snide references to "daddy's boy".

Bush has also got a positive message that he will be a "President With a Purpose" which he spells out as cutting taxes for everybody, spending more on defence and reforming social security and education.

He will stay stubbornly "on message" over the next three months while Gore paints him as a lightweight from Texas in thrall to the big corporations and prepared to take away women's "right to choose".

The Bush handlers did a superb job in packaging their convention to show the "kinder, gentler" side of their candidate and the party. But it was hard not to be cynical at the "multicultural" presentation which had a succession of black and brown faces at the podium while at least 90 per cent of the delegates were white.

A New York Times columnist, Bob Herbert, was enraged at what he saw as "a breathtaking exercise in hypocrisy for them to haul so many blacks before the cameras for the sole purpose of singing, dancing, preaching and praising a party that has wanted no part of them".

The handlers also arranged for one of the speeches to be given by the only openly gay Republican member of Congress, Jim Kolbe, although the party policy platform this week came out against giving gays and lesbians any special protection against discrimination. As Kolbe spoke, members of the Texas delegation protested by bowing their heads in prayer.

Gen Colin Powell, a hero to Republicans, made the most outspoken speech of the week when he scolded the Republicans for its hostility to affirmative action. He was politely applauded but later many delegates made it clear they did not agree with him.

Any Republicans who might have displayed the less tolerant face of the party were kept well out of sight this week. The hope is the independent voters and women, especially in the suburbs, who were put off by the hard-edged Republican rhetoric of the past two elections can be won over this time by Bush's "compassionate conservatism".

Bush's reach out to minorities will probably not have a significant effect on African-Americans who are solidly in the Democratic camp, but it could work with Hispanics who are a key group in some vital states, especially California.

But Bush this week has had to be careful not to offend his core Republican base by giving the impression he is soft on issues such as crime, gun control or abortion. It is for this reason Democrats are denouncing Republicans as staging a "masquerade ball" in Philadelphia this week intended to mislead voters.

That may be, but for Bush and the Republicans the more important thing this week was to show he can go from being Governor of Texas to being President without making America look ridiculous.

There is a parallel with Ronald Reagan in 1980 when the former film star had to show his record as a two-term Governor of California and a conservative was more relevant than his roles in B-movies.

But Reagan's ascension came when America was disillusioned with Jimmy Carter and in the throes of economic recession. Bush faces a tougher task in preaching the need for change during the good times. He will also be up against an Al Gore who once said the way to campaign is to "rip your opponent's throat out".