Paraguay Letter:Paraguay is a country with a history of totalitarian leaders where politics has become synonymous with corruption, nepotism and shameless enrichment.
While colossal mansions fill the cities' suburbs, landless indigenous peoples camp in makeshift tents along the roadside and a quarter of the citizens struggle to survive on 50 cents a day.
In a country governed by the Colorado Party for 60 years, and with a weak opposition, hopes of change appeared slim.
Then, almost overnight, in letters splashed in red paint on walls around the capital, Asunción, signs of change appeared. "Lugo," read the words, "Yes, Yes".
With under a year to go before general elections, a former Catholic bishop, Fernando Lugo, has taken the political stage by storm. From a humble background, as a priest and later bishop, he was a follower of liberation theology and worked in the country's poorest region.
He recently resigned as a bishop to follow a career in politics and is currently heading an opposition alliance.
As an outsider with a clean slate and socialist leanings, he is seen as an unprecedented figure in Paraguayan politics.
For 35 years Paraguay endured a brutal Colorado Party-backed dictatorship under Alfredo Stroessner. The latter was eventually overthrown in a coup in 1989 by his brother-in-law, who initiated a democratic transition, but ensured power stayed firmly in Colorado hands.
Currently six of the nine supreme court judges are Colorados. And there has been no reform of the police, created under Stroessner, who continue to inspire fear among the population.
Nor has there been any land reform, with 90 per cent of the land still in the hands of 2 per cent of the population. Social spending is the lowest in Latin America, at 9.5 per cent of GNP.
Nonetheless, loyalty to a family history of voting regardless of party policies, a system of local "operators" who provide favours to the poor in exchange for votes, a weak and corrupt opposition and widespread social repression have guaranteed the Colorado Party eight consecutive general and local election victories.
However, in the 2003 elections which brought the current president, Nicanor Duarte, to power, a record 36 per cent of the electorate abstained and Colorado support dropped by 16.6 percentage points.
Through an almost comical propaganda machine, Nicanor, backed by a powerful business and land-holding elite, has tried to improve his popularity.
"I have the recipe. In 30-40 days the opposition will dissolve like powder," he states at a political rally. "Remember my words."
Duarte has accused Lugo of involvement in a high-profile kidnapping, and of spying on his children. In other statements he has claimed to be a socialist himself, and in his annual report to Congress last week he appeared to misread statistics, stating that poverty had been reduced to 8 per cent.
But a large part of the electorate is no longer susceptible to the Nicanor line. Their daily reality appears to give the lie to the government's professed concern for them.
"We have always been excluded," says rural activist Magui Balbuena, "As the president moves forward with his neoliberal agenda, selling millions of hectares of land to soya producers, thousands are left landless and forced to migrate to cities, where they live in misery in shanty towns.
"Their desperate situation is slowly awakening their political conscience, which lay dormant after decades of repression and blind fanaticism," he says.
"We know that any real change in the current political system will take decades," says a leader of the landless movement, Asuncion Duartes. "But at least Lugo would open a small window for change."
Despite the campaign against him, Lugo's popularity has grown unabated. Recent opinion polls show him 20 points ahead of the other potential candidates.
If, that is, the Colorado Party allows him to run. While Lugo has officially resigned as bishop, the Vatican has not accepted his resignation.
Paraguay's constitution bans members of the clergy from seeking political office, so his candidacy could be challenged legally. But such a move could have high costs for the popularity of the Colorado Party and cause widespread unrest.
"The constitution also guarantees citizens' freedom of association," says historian Milda Rivarola. "Lugo has officially resigned as a bishop in Paraguay. A move to impeach him would be seen as upholding canon law over the national constitution."
According to local journalist Marcos Caceres, short of murdering Lugo, it is a move the Colorados may well be prepared to make.
While Lugo's emergence can be seen as an indication that Paraguay is on the verge of sharing in the "winds of change" which are seeing many South American countries shift to the left, analysts are cautious.
"A mafia has reigned in Paraguay for decades," says Rivarola. "Lugo has taken them by surprise. It is not at all clear what is going to happen."