Race for Congress too close to call

IN 1994 the Republicans took control of the US Congress after 40 years

IN 1994 the Republicans took control of the US Congress after 40 years. The organiser of victory was Congressman Newt Gingrich of Georgia who was elected Speaker of the House of Representatives.

His "Contract With America", introduced as "the second American Revolution", set about ramming through a 10 point programme designed to reverse Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal and abolish all signs of humanity for the poor, the ill, the disabled and the elderly.

Mr Gingrich's "revolution", which was to be permanent, may end on November 5th after the votes are counted. Going into the election, the Republicans hold 235 of the 435 House seats, the Democrats 197. To take control of the House, set the agenda and chair the powerful committees, the Democrats need a net gain of 19 seats at least.

In the past year, President Clinton proved himself a master of how to work with a hostile Congress. He may prefer it that way. He blamed Republicans for blocking legislation; he vetoed what he did not like and entered into compromises on the rest.

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The New York Times reported on Wednesday that the tide for Mr Clinton is so strong the electorate may abandon Democratic candidates they might otherwise support. Most Americans do not like one party control of both the White House and Congress. Some Republican managers are telling their candidates "running below 50 per cent", to abandon Mr Dole because he will lose. Between these two sets of Machiavellian calculations one cannot be sure of the outcome.

For control of the Senate, in which Republicans hold 53 seats and Democrats 47, the latter need a net gain of three seats. Some long serving senators are retiring, including outstanding figures such as Senator Sac No no of Georgia, the Democratic chairman of the Armed Services Committee, who was more powerful than the Pentagon yet was powerless to stop the Gulf War and Senator Alan Simpson, Republican of Wyoming, who worked on immigration reform with Senator Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts.

The longest serving senator, Strom Thurmond of South Carolina was first elected in 1954; he is running for another six year term at the age of 93. As governor of his state in 1948 he bolted the Democratic Party because it supported civil rights and ran on a States Rights ticket. Under Nixon he became a Republican.

In Minnesota, the very liberal - indeed socialist - Senator Paul Wellstone is seeking a second term against what some describe as the unscrupulous tactics of the man he defeated in 1990, the conservative Rudy Boschwitz. The latter's campaign is built on negative TV advertising. Senator Wellstone is maintaining a small lead.

In Massachusetts there is a civilised contest between Senator John F. Kerry, a Democrat, and Republican Governor William Weld. Both are Brahmins. Mr Kerry is a Vietnam hero who later opposed the war. Among Irish Americans, Mr Weld is the more popular, perhaps because he sings Irish songs with great gusto.

Another Irish note is struck by Congressman James T. Walsh, a New York Republican who chairs the Friends of Ireland in Congress. He may lose to Democrat Marty Mack. A former social worker and Peace Corps volunteer, Mr Walsh enjoyed trade union support last time. His problem now is his leader. The AFL-CIO hates Speaker Gingrich, with good reason.

Mr Gingrich has been the unwitting architect of Mr Clinton's success. He shut down the government twice last year for a total of 35 days before and after Christmas.

"One of the lessons I've learned in the last two years," he told the Washington Post this week, "is you go slower, you prepare the ground, you make sure people understand". The shutdown was a mistake", he admitted.