THE WORLD’S Muslims will number 2.2 billion by 2030 compared to 1.6 billion last year, and some 60 per cent will be concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region, according to a new study.
But falling birth rates as more Muslim women are educated, living standards improve and populations become more urbanised mean the world’s Muslim population growth will slow over the next two decades, reducing it on average from 2.2 per cent a year in 1990-2010 to 1.5 per cent a year from now until 2030.
If current trends continue, Muslims will make up 26.4 per cent of the world population by then, compared with 23.4 per cent now, according to predictions by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life.
“Globally, the Muslim population is forecast to grow at about twice the rate of the non-Muslim population over the next two decades – an average annual growth rate of 1.5 per cent for Muslims, compared with 0.7 per cent for non-Muslims,” it said.
The report estimated that about 60 per cent of Muslims will live in the Asia-Pacific region in 2030, 20 per cent in the Middle East, 17.6 per cent in sub-Saharan Africa, 2.7 per cent in Europe and 0.5 per cent in the Americas.
Pakistan will overtake Indonesia as the world’s most populous Muslim-majority nation by 2030, it predicted, while the Muslim minority in predominantly Hindu India will retain its position as the world’s third largest Muslim population.
The report estimated that continuing migration will result in Europe’s Muslim population increasing from 6 per cent to 8 per cent by 2030.
The number of Muslims in France, currently home to Europe’s largest Muslim population, will rise to 6.9 million, or 10.3 per cent of the population, from 4.7 million; in Britain the population will rise to 5.6 million from 2.9 million; and in Germany to 5.5 million from 4.1 million.
Alan Cooperman, Pew Forum associate director for research, said the research debunked claims made by some opponents of Muslim immigration that high birth rates would make Muslims the majority in Europe within decades.
“Those are substantial increases but they are very far from ‘Eurabia’ scenario of runaway growth,” he said.
The number of Muslims in the US will grow from 0.8 per cent in 2010 to 1.7 per cent in 2030, “making Muslims roughly as numerous as Jews or Episcopalians are in the United States today,” the report said.
The study, entitled The Future of the Global Muslim Population, was part of a Pew Forum project analysing patterns of religious faith and its impact on societies around the world.