Private poll shows Fine Gael support up 12 points

Fine Gael's support increased by a massive 12 percentage points to 30 per cent on the eve of Mr John Bruton's removal as leader, according to a private MRBI opinion poll for a confidential client.

The poll also puts Mr Jim Mitchell substantially ahead of Mr Michael Noonan as the popular choice to lead Fine Gael, but Mr Noonan is the favourite among Fine Gael supporters.

Some 30 per cent of voters, among them 27 per cent of Fine Gael supporters, favoured Mr Mitchell to succeed Mr John Bruton whereas 22 per cent, and 31 per cent of Fine Gael supporters, opted for Mr Noonan at the height of last week's heave.

The MRBI poll was conducted among a national quota sample of 1,000 electors last Monday and Tuesday in the immediate aftermath of the joint tabling of a motion of no confidence in Mr Bruton.

It was commissioned by a public relations consultant on behalf of supporters of Mr Mitchell, more than a week before the publication of the Irish Times/MRBI poll which precipitated the challenge. The commissioning of the poll indicates a challenge was being contemplated for some time.

The third-named candidate in the poll is Mr Ivan Yates, then perceived to be the most likely third candidate in the event of a contest. He received 20 per cent support. Some 28 per cent of voters were undecided.

The poll shows a massive increase in support for Fine Gael with the publicity surrounding last week's heave. The change in the core vote of the parties in the space of a week since the Irish Times/MRBI poll was conducted is: Fianna Fail 34 per cent (down four points); Fine Gael 22 per cent (up seven points); Labour 10 per cent (unchanged); Progressive Democrats 2 per cent (down one point); Green Party 3 per cent (down one point); Sinn Fein 5 per cent (unchanged); Others 4 per cent (down four points) and undecideds 20 per cent (up three points).

Using the old formula of excluding the undecideds, rather than the new adjusted method in the Irish Times poll, the state of the parties in the event of a general election last Monday and Tuesday is: Fianna Fail 43 per cent (down three points in a week); Fine Gael 28 per cent (up 10 points); Labour 12 per cent (unchanged); PDs 2 per cent (down two points); Green Party 3 per cent (down two points); Sinn Fein 6 per cent (unchanged); Others 5 per cent (down four points).

Fine Gael's core vote increased by 3 points to 25 per cent when respondents were asked how they would vote in a general election if Mr Bruton was no longer leader of the party. The state of the parties in this context, excluding the undecideds, is: Fianna Fail 41 per cent (down two points); Fine Gael 30 per cent (up two points); Labour 11 per cent (down one point); PDs 3 per cent (up one point); Green Party 3 per cent (unchanged); Sinn Fein 6 per cent (unchanged); Others 5 per cent (unchanged).

With four declared candidates in the leadership context, the poll also finds that three out of five voters see Mr Ahern as the preferred Taoiseach after the next general election. Mr Ahern scores 62 per cent against Mr Bruton's 25 per cent; 58 per cent to Mr Mitchell's 29 per cent; 60 per cent to Mr Noonan's 27 per cent; and 61 per cent to Mr Yates's 25 per cent.

Alison O'Connor writes: The former Fine Gael leader Mr Alan Dukes is to support Mr Michael Noonan in the party's leadership contest.

There had been some speculation that Mr Dukes would enter the leadership contest but last night he said he believed that under Mr Noonan's leadership the party would again be "a major leading political force and the cornerstone of the next government".

Further declarations are not expected ahead of the closure for nominations today at 6 p.m.