ANALYSIS:With the electorate in an unpredictable mood, there is a lot to play for in a fascinating contest, writes GERRY MORIARTY, Northern Editor
EVERY ELECTION promises change. But this Westminster election could deliver more than just some some new Northern faces in the House of Commons and changes in party strengths.
The reputations of some of the most enduring political figures in Northern Ireland are facing a defining moment on polling day on May 6th. The Northern electorate is at its most unpredictable in recent times and the results they deliver could change the political landscape in ways unimaginable just a year ago.
Will Peter Robinson, after all his recent travails, decide that the time is approaching to step aside and hand over the leadership of the DUP and the First Ministership to a party colleague – possibly in the interests of unionist unity? Will Sir Reg Empey’s gamble in running in South Antrim instead of his home base of East Belfast cost him the leadership of the Ulster Unionist Party or gain him a post in a David Cameron government? Gerry Adams won’t face such pressures in West Belfast but if all the recent publicity about his IRA past – which he continues to deny – and his alleged paedophile brother, Liam, causes a significant dip in his personal vote would he start contemplating that he should make way for a younger leader? It’s an intriguing and important election especially if there is a hung parliament. Going into the election the DUP has eight seats (excluding its ninth seat, which Iris Robinson vacated in Strangford), Sinn Féin has five and the SDLP three. Lady Sylvia Hermon, formerly an Ulster Unionist, now stands as an Independent unionist.
How major or minor the alterations in party representation in the House of Commons hangs on how many of the North’s electorate of about 1,180,000 decide to vote and, of course, how they vote.
And there’s the rub. Northern Ireland is rather a different place than it was 10 years ago, or even five years ago. It’s difficult to take the pulse of the voters.
We now have full-scale devolution and a firmer peace and political process, regardless of the continuing threat from the republican dissidents. But a real problem for the politicians is that the public may be ground down by political fatigue because it took so tediously long to get to this high point in modern Irish history.
And that could translate into voter apathy come May 6th. The test for the politicians is to galvanise them out of that lethargy. There is a lot to play for in this election and the candidates and their canvassers must get that across to the public. As the campaign cranks into gear and the constituency battles start in earnest voters may become more engaged.
Certainly, they were thoroughly gripped at the start of the year with the revelations about the personal and financial affairs of Iris and Peter Robinson. All of that came after the Westminster expenses scandal which in broad-stroke fashion served to tarnish most politicians, but particularly damaged the Robinsons with the headlines of “Swish Family Robinson”.
Peter Robinson is running again in East Belfast but he faces two impressive adversaries, former rugby international Trevor Ringland running under the UCUNF banner (Ulster Conservatives and Unionists – New Force), and Alliance deputy leader Naomi Long.
Robinson remains in a strong position to hold his seat but how well he performs could define for the DUP leader and First Minister how long he should continue at the helm. A related matter is that there are significant behind-the-scenes attempts to press forward with unionist unity.
The real local power now rests at Stormont but the results of this election could have a bearing on next year’s Assembly poll. Without a unionist realignment Sinn Féin could win most seats in the 2011 Assembly elections, which would allow Martin McGuinness take the First Minister post – an eventuality that is anathema to most unionists, regardless of the fact that the Deputy First Minister holds equal standing with the First Minister.
Robinson himself favours unity between the DUP and UUP but equally he must know that such a coming together may require him stepping aside before the Assembly elections in May next year. This election therefore could be a watershed moment for him as he ponders his future.
For UUP leader Sir Reg Empey this election is hugely important. He has shifted to South Antrim and is trying to unseat DUP MP the Rev William McCrea. He must have a good chance, particularly if Alliance and some nationalist voters switch allegiance to oust McCrea, who would not be popular with moderate unionist opinion. If Sir Reg fails that could be the end of his tenure as UUP chief but if he succeeds that could gain him a job in government were the Tories to win the election, possibly even a seat in cabinet.
The so-called “garden centre Prods” – or middle-ground unionism – would surely love a local politician at the centre of power in London. How the UCUNF experiment plays, particularly now that it is so undermined in Fermanagh-South Tyrone, is unpredictable. Still you can’t forget how the presence of David Cameron and William Hague separately attending recent annual UUP conferences so electrified local unionists. Therefore, despite the DUP sniping, the hook-up with the British Conservatives could yet be a boon for the UUP.
Sir Reg badly needs this lift now that the party’s former sole MP, Lady Hermon, favourite to hold her seat in North Down, has abandoned the Ulster Unionists. Without it his days as leader would be numbered.
Sinn Féin seems on course to hold four of its five seats but faces considerable opposition in Fermanagh-South Tyrone where unionist unity candidate Rodney Connor, recently retired chief executive of Fermanagh council, must now hold the advantage. The added difficulty for the Sinn Féin MP and Minister Michelle Gildernew is the presence in the race of former high-profile UTV journalist Fearghal McKinney, for the SDLP, who should take a reasonable proportion of the nationalist vote.
Despite all the solemn commitments expressed by Tory spokesman on the North Owen Paterson, the Tory-UUP pact on contesting every seat in the North was broken in Fermanagh-South Tyrone. Nominations close next Tuesday afternoon and we won’t know until then whether the DUP and the UUP forge a similar arrangement in South Belfast to put forward a unity candidate to try to unseat the SDLP’s Dr Alasdair McDonnell. The Conservatives’ commitment to anti-sectarianism already is damaged and any further pact in South Belfast would shatter Paterson’s, Empey’s and Cameron’s protestations about challenging tribal politics in Northern Ireland.
New SDLP leader Margaret Ritchie yesterday firmly ruled out any reciprocal unity pact with Sinn Féin despite overtures from Gerry Adams because, she said, it would be “sectarian”.
Former SDLP leader Mark Durkan would seem well placed to hold off the threat from Sinn Féin in Foyle while Ritchie would seem to hold the advantage over Sinn Féin’s Caitríona Ruane in seeking to retain Eddie McGrady’s South Down seat.
There are many “big picture” politics issue to be considered in this election, not least whether in the event of a hung British parliament unionist MPs could hold the balance of power. There is also the matter of the relationship between the Tories and the Government and the two nationalist parties should Cameron triumph. Would Cameron hold to the Westminster bipartisan arrangement on Northern Ireland or seek to chip away at the Belfast Agreement, particularly if he needed unionist votes to hold office? But this will also be an entertaining tussle because there are many compelling constituency battles ahead, probably the liveliest is the scrap in North Antrim where Ian Paisley jnr is hoping to hold his father’s seat against the opposition of Traditional Unionist Voice leader Jim Allister. That contest has already led to court action and talk of a libel case.
Some think Allister has shot his bolt but his party is fielding 10 gung-ho candidates and how they perform is another of the unpredictables in this fascinating contest.