Poll suggests tight Dublin contest

A fierce contest is developing for the third European Parliament seat in Dublin with Joe Higgins of the Socialist Party now in the reckoning along with Eoin Ryan of Fianna Fáil and Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Féin, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll.

Gay Mitchell of Fine Gael and Proinsias De Rossa of the Labour Party seem assured of taking the first two seats in the capital.

Libertas founder Declan Ganley has made no headway since the last poll two weeks ago and appears to be out of the reckoning in the North West constituency.

The Labour Party is set to gain a seat from Fine Gael in the East constituency following significant gains by Nessa Childers over the past two weeks. In Munster the Independent MEP, Kathy Sinnott, has made a comeback and appears to be in a good position to head off the challenge of Labour¿s Alan Kelly.

In party terms, Fine Gael is set to lose one of its current five seats, Fianna Fáil is in danger of losing one of its four while Labour is set to double its tally from one to two. The Sinn Féin seat is in danger while the Greens don¿t look strong enough to make a comeback to the European Parliament.

The leading vote-getter in the poll, which was conducted with mock ballot papers, is Brian Crowley of Fianna Fáil, who is closely followed by Maireád McGuinness and Gay Mitchell of Fine Gael.

The poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday of this week among a representative sample of 2,000 voters. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 500 people in each of the four Euro constituencies. The margin of error is 2 per cent.

Declan Ganley of Libertas is stuck on just 9 per cent of the first-preference vote in the North West constituency and has shown no improvement since the last poll.

Pat ¿The Cope¿ Gallagher of Fianna Fáil, with 20 per cent, leads the field in the constituency, followed by Independent Marian Harkin, on 19 per cent, and Jim Higgins of Fine Gael, on 17 per cent.

The second Fine Gael candidate, Joe O¿Reilly, has gained 2 points to 10 per cent, with a massive share of the vote in his native Cavan and the surrounding counties, while Sinn Féin candidate Pádraig MacLochlainn has slipped back to 9 per cent.

The likely winners in North West are Mr Gallagher, Mr Higgins and Ms Harkin.

In Dublin, Gay Mitchell of Fine Gael leads the field with 28 per cent, followed by Proinsias De Rossa of the Labour Party with 25 per cent.

There is a big gap between them and the chasing field, which is led by Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Féin, on 11 per cent, followed by Eoin Ryan and Joe Higgins on 9 per cent each. Deirdre De Búrca of the Greens is next on 6 per cent, followed by former Green Patricia McKenna, who has slipped back to 5 per cent, the same as Eibhlín Byrne of Fianna Fáil. Caroline Simons of Libertas is on 2 per cent.

The transfers from the weaker candidates will determine who wins the three-way contest for the final seat.

In the East constituency the surge in support for Labour candidate Nessa Childers appears to have put paid to Fine Gael¿s chances of holding two seats. Maireád McGuinness will hold her seat for Fine Gael, while Liam Aylward of Fianna Fáil also looks assured of holding his seat.

In the South constituency, Brian Crowley of Fianna Fáil has improved his position at the head of the field with 30 per cent, followed by Seán Kelly of Fine Gael, with 16 per cent. Both are almost certain of election.

Independent MEP Kathy Sinnott has gained two points since the last poll and is in with a good chance of holding off Labour¿s Alan Kelly, who has dropped back a point to 12 per cent. Transfers from Toireasa Ferris of Sinn Féin and Colm Burke of Fine Gael will be critical in determining the fate of the last seat.