Poll shows majority of unionists opposed to Belfast Agreement

A majority of unionists are now opposed to the Belfast Agreement, according to a new opinion poll. The survey also found that almost seven out of 10 unionists would oppose Mr David Trimble were he to accept Sinn Fein into an executive without IRA decommissioning.

The poll indicated that 55 per cent of unionists voted Yes in the Belfast Agreement referendum last May, but now only 41 per cent would support the agreement. Nationalists overwhelmingly continue to support the agreement.

The poll found that 49 per cent of unionists would now vote No while 10 per cent would not vote. Excluding those who would not vote, the poll found that 54.4 per cent of unionists would vote No, while 45.6 per cent would still vote Yes.

The North's First Minister, Mr David Trimble, and the Deputy First Minister, Mr Seamus Mallon, won good approval ratings in the survey, which was conducted for tonight's BBC Northern Ireland's Hearts and Minds programme.

A second survey, conducted by the Institute of Irish Studies at Queen's University Belfast, found decommissioning remained the priority for Protestants while police reform, equality and rights issues were the main concerns of Catholics.

It also found that 93 per cent of the people of Northern Ireland want the agreement to work, and that figure includes 73 per cent of the supporters of the DUP, which is anti-agreement.

In the BBC poll Mr Mallon was judged best political performer, with 64 per cent rating him very or quite good. The Northern Secretary, Dr Mo Mowlam, was next in the performance league with 61 per cent, closely followed at 60 per cent by Mr Trimble. The Sinn Fein leader, Mr Gerry Adams, scored 45 per cent.

Price Waterhouse Coopers interviewed 1,900 people (59 per cent Protestant, 41 per cent Catholic) for the BBC in what is said to be the biggest poll conducted in Northern Ireland. Nine out of 10 Ulster Unionist Party respondents thought Mr Trimble was doing a good job: Mr Seamus Mallon received a 78 per cent approval rating. Three out of four SDLP supporters polled were favourably disposed to Mr Trimble: 91 per cent approved the work of Mr Mallon.

Unionists were asked in whose hands they thought the North's union with Britain was safest. Mr Trimble won a 43 per cent rating, followed by the DUP leader, the Rev Ian Paisley, at 25 per cent, Mr David Ervine of the PUP at 10 per cent, Mr Jeffrey Donaldson, an anti-agreement UUP MP, at 8 per cent, the UK Unionist Party leader, Mr Robert McCartney, at 7 per cent, and Mr Gary McMichael of the Ulster Democratic Party at 6 per cent.

On decommissioning almost one in three unionists said they would support Mr Trimble if he entered an executive with Sinn Fein ahead of IRA disarmament: 68 per cent said they would not support him. Only 3 per cent of unionists thought Sinn Fein should take its two executive seats without any preconditions, against 54 per cent of nationalists. One in five unionists said they would accept Sinn Fein in cabinet with some weapons handed in first, but more than one in three said all IRA weapons must first be decommissioned: 35 per cent said Sinn Fein should be excluded in all circumstances.

Of SDLP supporters 37 per cent said they would refuse to support Sinn Fein's position on disarmament if there were no moves to decommission within the two years stated in the agreement. The same figure said the SDLP should turn away from Sinn Fein if the IRA ceasefire broke down: one in five Sinn Fein supporters agreed.

The poll asked people to put their views aside and say what they thought would happen in the months ahead. Twenty-three per cent of unionists believed there would be movement on weapons and the executive would be formed, and almost one in three nationalists agreed.

Of the unionist respondents 37 per cent believed there would be a fudge on weapons, a view shared by nearly half of nationalists. Four in 10 unionists believed the agreement would collapse over the issue and 21 per cent of nationalists agreed.

Just over half of respondents said Northern Ireland would be part of the UK in 2020 while 48.6 per cent disagreed. Almost three out of four said those responsible for the death of Garda Jerry McCabe should not qualify for early release.

The Queen's poll of 1,000 people across Northern Ireland found 93 per cent of respondents - including 73 per cent of DUP supporters - wanted the agreement to work. The research was undertaken by Dr Colin Irwin of Queen's in collaboration with representatives of Sinn Fein and the PUP, and was independently funded by the Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust.

Dr Irwin said the poll showed Protestant resistance to new North-South bodies was "no longer a serious problem". While cross-Border institutions are joint second for Catholics in their list of priorities and 10th for Protestants, only 13 per cent of Protestants consider them "of no importance at all", according to the poll.