The EU constitution referendum, defeated recently in France and the Netherlands, would most likely suffer the same fate in Ireland if the vote were held tomorrow, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll.
The poll found that 35 per cent of those asked would reject the treaty, leaving 30 per cent in favour of ratification. But with 35 per cent remaining undecided the vote could swing convincingly back to the 'Yes' side.
The figures are made more intriguing given the fact that 45 per cent believe the referendum should be held, compared to 34 per cent who believe it should not and 21 per cent with no opinion.
The poll was taken among a national quota sample of 1,000 voters at 100 sampling points throughout all constituencies in the State last Tuesday and Wednesday.
The poll found that 45 per cent of those questioned believe Ireland should ‘do all it can to protect its independence of the EU’, compared to 36 per cent who thought that Ireland ‘should do all it can to unite fully with the EU’.
The nine per cent difference is the biggest ever margin in the response to that particular question, since the poll began monitoring the issue in 1996. Just less than one in five, 19 per cent, had no opinion.
Of those questioned, only 9 per cent claimed to have a good understanding of what the referendum would mean for Ireland, while 28 per cent understand some issues, but not all. Some 36 per cent of people polled said they were vaguely aware of its implications, with 3 per cent offering no opinion.