BRITAIN:CONSERVATIVE CHALLENGER Boris Johnson has received a reality check from an ICM poll giving him a tight lead of just two points over Ken Livingstone in the London mayoral election.
Mr Johnson's wafer-thin advantage pointing to an increasingly keen contest and a likely knife-edged outcome, contrasts sharply with earlier findings by YouGov, whose online survey earlier this week gave the Conservative candidate a full 10-point lead.
However, YouGov's Peter Kellner said that, if anything, he had expected ICM's telephone poll of 1,002 London voters to be more favourable to Mr Livingstone - and experts were forced to accept that, either way, Mr Johnson is still the front-runner within shouting distance of pulling off a spectacular victory on May 1st.
Mayor Livingstone said that as the election drew closer, Londoners were beginning to concentrate on issues that would affect their lives, like transport, crime, community relations, housing, the environment and the ability to practically run the capital. "That's where I'm picking up support and Boris Johnson is losing ground," he said.
Mr Kellner said sampling fluctuations could explain the differences in the two polls this week and maintained that telephone polls (such as ICM's) had "a pro-Livingstone bias". With all polls subject to margins of error, Mr Kellner ventured: "Perhaps reality lies between the two. Suppose the true state of the race is Johnson 45 per cent, Livingstone 39 per cent. Both ICM's and YouGov's figures vary from this by two-to-three points - and the margin of error on both our polls is three-to-four points. In short, our differences could be explained by sampling fluctuation."
Some evidence of Mr Livingstone's fluctuating popularity with voters lies in the finding that Mr Johnson is slightly ahead in terms of the second preferences of voters using the alternative vote system.
Yesterday's poll for the Guardian showed Mr Johnson the first choice of 42 per cent of voters, against 41 per cent for Mr Livingstone, then pushing that to a two point lead, 51 per cent to 49 per cent, once second preferences were allocated.
Four years ago the Conservative candidate Steve Norris was the first preference of just 29 per cent of voters in the capital, while Mr Livingstone won more first and second preference votes than any other candidate. This time, according to ICM, 43 per cent of Liberal Democrat voters say they will give Mr Johnson their second preference, with only 30 per cent going to Mr Livingstone. Lib Dem candidate Brian Paddick is trailing on 10 per cent support.
The good news for Mr Livingstone remains that majorities of London voters think he is the man most likely to meet their needs and do something about the environment. The bad news is that more Londoners (41 per cent to 37 per cent) think Mr Johnson will maintain "the highest standards of public office", and (this time by 38 per cent to 28 per cent) that Mr Johnson is more honest than Mr Livingstone.