Poll finds gap between options for government narrowing as election nears

THE gap between the two options for government is steadily closing within weeks of the expected general election, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll.

There are now only 6 percentage points dividing the two likely coalition combinations. The gap between the preference for a Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrats alternative to the current three party Government has halved since January.

Some 43 per cent of voters would prefer a Fianna Fail/PD coalition compared to 37 per cent who would prefer a Fine Gael/ Labour/Democratic Left government.

The poll, conducted among a national quota sample of 1,000 electors at 100 sampling points throughout all constituencies in the State on Wednesday and Thursday, March 26th and 27th, will boost the confidence of the three Coalition leaders as they meet next week to fix a date lord the pre summer election.

The state of the parties, excluding the 15 per cent undecideds, is: Fianna Fail 43 per cent, down two percentage points since January; Fine Gael 30 per cent, up three points, to its highest level in eight years; Labour 11 per cent, up one point; PDs 8 per cent, down one point; DL 2 per cent, unchanged; Green Party 2 per cent, down one point; Others 4 per cent, unchanged.

On the basis of these voting intentions by party preference, the gap in support between the two alternative coalitions being offered to the electorate has narrowed to 8 percentage points.

The level of satisfaction with the manner in which the Government is running the country has also hit an all time high of 53 per cent, up 3 percentage points in two months. The Government's dissatisfaction rating has correspondingly dropped by three points to 38 per cent in this poll.

The Taoiseach, Mr Bruton, is recording his highest ever satisfaction rating of 63 per cent, up five points since January, and surpassing the Fianna Fail leader, Mr Ahern. The Tanaiste, Mr Spring, has a rating of 54 per cent, up three points. The satisfaction rating of the Minister for Social Welfare, Mr De Rossa, has dropped by three points to 43 per cent.

The Fianna Fail leader, Mr Ahern, has a rating of 58 per cent, down 1 percentage point since January, while the PD leader, Ms Harney, is recording a rating of 67 per cent, down two points, but still the most popular party leader.

The most dramatic finding of the poll, however, centres on the shift in support towards Fine Gael and the Government in the weeks running up to the calling of the election. With the peak in Mr Bruton's rating, the extraordinarily high satisfaction rating for the Government and the Fine Gael party breaking the 30 per cent support harrier for the first time since July 1989, the scene is being set for a closer than expected contest by the end of May.

Asked for their coalition preferences after the election, some 43 per cent of voters opted for the Fianna Fail/PD alternative. This reflects a drop of 1 percentage point since January. Some 37 per cent would prefer the current three party combination, up five percentage points. Some 10 per cent would prefer neither, down one point, while 10 per cent are undecided.