Too big an ask? How Green Party will respond to FF-FG positions

In a letter to the Green Party, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael responded to the 17 questions posed last week on the joint framework document for government which both parties published.

The two larger parties are hoping to get the Greens into negotiations with a view to forming a government.

Below we assess how each response from the two larger parties will be received by the smaller party. Using traffic light indicators, a clear majority of the responses (10) are green, with two amber, and five red.

The answers which receive red lights include the biggest “asks” for the Green Party.

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1: The commitment to reduce greenhouse emissions by 7 per cent on average each year.

Answer: This is the main “red line”. Both parties say they “will commit to developing new, more ambitious carbon reduction targets”, but add that it is important to consult and persuade. It wants to “tease out” with the Greens what specific actions it suggests – which can be taken as a lure to get Eamon Ryan to the negotiating table.

“We all need the understand the impact it would have on employment, poverty, agricultural practice, public transport,” it adds.

But there is no commitment beyond an increase on 3 per cent, with no percentage specified. In a divided Green Party, anything less than 7 per cent will be hard to sell.

Traffic light: Red.

2. OffShore Wind, an upgraded grid and interconnectors.

Answer: Yes. All parties have agreed to a 70 per cent renewables target, with ocean power at the centre of it.

Traffic light: Green.

3. End of exploration licences for offshore gas?

Answer: Both parties accept they are open to exploring the idea.

Traffic light: Green/Amber

4. Cease construction of the Liquid Naturalised Gas Import Terminal and other new fossil fuel infrastructure.

Answer: Yes, but minor queries on definition.

Traffic light: Green.

5. Exclusive provision of public housing, social housing and cost rental housing on public lands?

Answer: No. “Home ownership is a core aim of both of our parties… We would not like to see people who want to own their own home to be the only ones frozen out.

It’s important but not a deal-breaker.

Traffic Light: Red.

6. Urban Renewal and “Town Centre First” model.

Answer: A partial yes. Language is committed to renewal of inner urban areas through developing derelict site. Even cites the initiative of the Scottish government. But the first line is key: “We would like to give equal priority to urban and rural renewal”, which is not town centre first.

Traffic Light: Amber.

7. Deep retrofit programme to improve homes’ energy ratings.

Answer: Yes. Everybody agrees on this though. The real question is how many homes and how deep is the retrofit. That could be subject to negotiation. The Greens want 750,000 homes. Current plan is 500,000 to B2 energy standard.

Traffic Light: Green.

8. A new social contract.

Answer: Yes/maybe: Language is positive, with both parties open to a wide and deep consultation to include as many voices in society as possible in decision-making. It’s unlikely they will commit as fully as the Greens on this.

Traffic Light: Green.

9. End Direct Provision.

Answer: Yes. But adds it will take time, but will adhere to the findings of the report of retired High Court judge Bryan McMahon, who recommended “own-door” and self-catering accommodation.

Traffic Light: Green.

10. At least 0.7 per cent of national income to be spent on Overseas Development Aid?

Answer: Yes. This is a long-standing aim of all government this century, but none have achieved it.

Traffic Light: Green.

11. A national land use plan.

Answer: Yes. This is a big theme for the Greens. And both parties say they can agree to it.

Traffic Light: Green.

12. Twenty per cent of transport budget to walking and cycling; two-thirds of the rest to public transport.

Answer: A partial Yes. This is another huge issue for the Greens. The bigger parties will agree to spending increase for walking and cycling, but not to 20 per cent (no figure mentioned).

They have also agreed to a two-to-one ratio, but this is for “new” infrastructure. However, maintenance and upkeep of existing network should be excluded by this. Does “new” include the 60 or so road projects under way at present? The Greens found themselves under fire from environmentalists when the M3 in the vicinity of the Hill of Tara was given the go-ahead just when they entered government. They argued the decision had already been made, but that fell on some deaf ears.

Traffic Light: Amber/Red

13. Universal Basic Income.

Answer: A long-standing Green tenet, which guarantees a minimum basic income for every citizen. Both parties willing to discuss, but neither seem over-enthusiastic.

Traffic Light: Amber/Red

14. Revise National Development plan to include social contract goals and new climate change targets.

Answer: Yes: Commits to review the National Development Plan in the first 100 days of government.

Traffic Light: Green

15. Review State’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic?

Answer: Yes.

Traffic light: Green.

16. Costing of the Joint Framework Document published by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael?

Answer: No. But gives a very full explanation that “unfortunately we are not in normal times”. It says the framework document is a starting point for discussion, not an end point. Argues that those details will be thrashed out in negotiations.

“Nobody knows with any reasonable degree of accuracy how long the Covid-19 emergency will last; how slow, or how fast, the recovery will be; or what form of Brexit will take place in 2021.”

Despite the negative answer, hard to see this posing a major problem.

Traffic Light: Red.

17. Commitment to publish a Green Procurement Policy?

Answer: Yes

Traffic Light: Green.

Will all this be enough to entice the Greens into negotiations? The party is likely to give its first detailed response on Thursday. Clearly, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil believe it will be enough. Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin conclude the letter by saying: “Direct discussion between our parties would allow us to tease out any issues arising from the recent letters and the Framework document and hopefully enable us to move to Programme for Government talks.”

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