Sinn Féin performance not guaranteed to translate into votes at election

The increase in support for Sinn Féin, which puts the party at level pegging with Fine Gael, is the most striking feature of the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll.

While the finding is undoubtedly good news for the party some caveats are required before extrapolating from the poll result to the next general election.

The last Irish Times poll in May had Sinn Féin on 20 per cent of the vote, yet in the local elections a few days later it won 15 per cent. By contrast Fine Gael at 24 per cent and Fianna Fáil at 25 per cent won exactly the same share of the vote in the election as they got in the poll.

Something similar happened in the presidential election of 2011 when the party got 13.5 per cent of the vote having polled 18 per cent during the campaign.

That said the latest poll is still very good news for Sinn Féin. It has again overtaken Fianna Fáil in an opinion poll and if it can maintain that dominance all the way to the general election it has a real chance of repeating the result when it counts.

Sinn Féin has solidified its support in Dublin where it is now the biggest party, far ahead of Fianna Fáil and Labour. It does by far the best in working-class areas, winning 39 per cent support among the poorest DE social category. It also does very well among young voters, but the level of support declines steadily with age and higher income. It is also significantly more attractive to men than women.

Northwest slippage The party is also very strong in the rest of Leinster and Munster but has slipped back a bit in Connacht

-Ulster, which is now its weakest region.

The party demonstrated during the local and European elections that it was capable of getting its working-class vote out in significant numbers. A repeat of that organisational efficiency will be required at the next election to translate potential support into votes.

One of the surprises of the local elections was that Fine Gael had difficulty getting its middle-class voters out, with a series of controversies appearing to sap their enthusiasm for voting.

While the fact that the McNulty affair has not caused a further decline in the Fine Gael vote will come as a relief to the party, it probably undermined the prospect of a recovery.

A positive for the party is that its vote in Dublin has held up reasonably well and is evenly spread across the State. It is far ahead of all other parties among its traditional base of the best-off AB voters and farmers.

Taoiseach Enda Kenny’s satisfaction rating has taken a bit of a hit due to recent events. But, paradoxically, the Government’s rating is up marginally since the last poll.

The poll contains good news for Labour after a dreadful performance in the local and European elections in May. The modest recovery to 9 per cent is augmented by the fact that it is up to 13 per cent in Dublin. That puts the party in with a fighting chance of retaining many of its seats if the modest upward trend can be maintained.

Joan Burton’s satisfaction rating is clearly a plus for the party at this stage. The trick will be to maintain that standing as she becomes more identified with all of the Government’s decisions, popular and unpopular.

Eamon Gilmore had a strong rating for his first year in office but it fell dramatically in the spring of 2012 and he never recovered.

The findings will come as a disappointment for Fianna Fáil with a drop of five points since the last poll in May. The party had done well in Irish Times polls throughout 2013 and the first half of 2014 and that translated into a respectable performance in the local elections when it won 25 per cent, recovering its position as the biggest party in the country both in terms of the percentage share of the vote and the number of council seats.

FF’s capital problem Given the current problems besetting Fine Gael the party would have expected to gain support, but instead it has slipped back and party leader Micheá

l Martin has also seen his satisfaction rating drop to the same level as that of Kenny.

A real worry for Fianna Fáil is that the party’s share of the vote in Dublin continues to languish at 12 per cent, behind Labour, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin. It does better in the rest of Leinster and is strong in Munster where it is on 25 per cent and Connacht-Ulster where it is on 29 per cent.

An important plus is that Fianna Fáil does better than any other party among the over 65s who tend to vote in large numbers.

The continuing strong support for Independents and smaller parties is another feature of the poll. This group does particularly well in Dublin and is strong across all age groups and social classes indicating that they will have a significant presence in the Dáil after the next election.