Past lessons for Paschal’s budget plans

The first budget for a Minister for Finance is a huge occasion for the new incumbent and a massive test of their mettle.

Of course, Paschal Donohoe isn’t exactly making his full debut. Since 2016 he has been the public expenditure minister, controlling the State’s spending. Next week, he will be laying out tax and fiscal plans for the next 12 months.

As Donohoe sits down over the weekend to present his blueprint for the economy during 2018, he will be mindful of how others, fresh into Merrion Street, made their marks in the past.

Some went for the grand gesture. Others had no option but to inflict savage cuts. Yet others came up with schemes that badly backfired on them.

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Any profile of Charlie Haughey invariably notes he was a successful minister for finance, one of the few who managed to balance the books.

He was certainly a minister who knew what an eye-catching measure was. In his first budget, he introduced free travel for pensioners, a bold and imaginative move that had a transformative effect on society.

It also helped salvage some of his reputation when he fell from grace in later life.

John Bruton’s first budget as minister for finance was a disaster. He was part of a fragile coalition dependent on support from Independents. He imposed VAT on children’s shoes – a move that caused a furore and saw Limerick TD Jim Kemmy go overboard. The Government fell as a result.

Ray MacSharry came in as minister for finance in 1987 promising an expansionary budget. Instead he imposed savage cuts, earning him the sobriquet ‘Mac the Knife’.

When Bertie Ahern became minister in 1992, his two young daughters, Cecelia and Georgina, accompanied him on budget day. It was a populist budget: He cut the two income tax rates - to 27 per cent and 48 per cent - and broadened the bands.

In 1997, Charlie McCreevy presented the first of seven budgets. It was expansionary (“when I have it I spend it”) with a steep reduction in capital gains tax and an extension of tax breaks for development.

It also included tax equalisation, which caused a mini revolt because families with one stay-at-home parent lost out heavily. There were some adjustments, but it paved the way for two working parents to become more the norm.

Brian Lenihan faced a very different situation in late 2008 when he presented an emergency unscheduled mini-budget as his first.

It included some savage cuts, or ‘corrections’ to use the euphemism. One of the measures was to remove the Over-70s medical card. It prompted a ‘silver haired’ rebellion and marches on the Dáil. The move was hastily reversed but set the rot for that government.

By the time Michael Noonan presented his first budget in late 2011, the role was split between him and Brendan Howlin. The announcement happened over two days and was preceded two days earlier by a live televised address by then-taoiseach Enda Kenny.

Under the supervision of the Troika, Noonan’s budget was one of the most austere in the State. It contained €1.6 billion in tax rises with Howlin imposing cuts of €3.6 billion.

So what can we make of the first budget by Paschal Donohoe?

Despite it being his first full budget in his new dual role, there has been a distinct lack of buzz around Donohoe’s budget.

It may have to do with his lack of wiggle room. Following the public pay agreements, his scope for spending is only a little over €300 million net without adjustments. There has been no inkling so far at least of Donohoe coming in with any big gesture.

As Pat Leahy reports, the tax take will give no give extra room for manoeuvre.

Leahy also reports that Fine Gael desires to increase the threshold for inheritance tax for children of the deceased from €310,000 are unlikely to be met.