Disenchantment’s beneficiaries: Independent TDs

A surge in opinion poll support for Independent TDs and Others, making this the largest catch-all grouping in the Dáil, has opened up the prospect of participation by some of its elements in the next government. Moves by ambitious individuals to form parties, loose associations or policy alliances to challenge the bigger, established parties, have taken on a new urgency. But the electorate’s message offers only limited encouragement in that regard. Voters have, in effect, turned their backs on national politics in favour of localism.

Efforts by Shane Ross, Lucinda Creighton, Michael Fitzmaurice and others to bring together groups of like-minded individuals on the centre-right of the spectrum have been echoed by People Before Profit, the Socialist Party and the Anti-Austerity Alliance. Growth of nine points in support for Independent TDs and these disparate groups has, however, been accompanied by a loss of confidence in national politics. Behind the headline figures, 36 per cent explained their transfer of allegiance on the grounds that they no longer trust the established parties. Furthermore, more than one in four intended to vote on the basis that the candidate would concentrate on local issues. At a time of extensive agitation over the introduction of water charges, only four per cent mentioned this issue as a cause for their defection.

This wasn't a normal protest surge. When support for Independents and Others rose to a record high of 32 per cent, it was not just at the expense of Fine Gael and the Labour Party, but included their most acerbic critic, Sinn Féin. Disillusionment was greatest in Dublin and was most marked within the 25 to 34 age group. Farmers were least likely to abandon tradition and vote for Independent candidates, compared to one-third of top urban earners.

Because of the diffuse nature of this grouping, the recent challenge from Minister for Health Leo Varadkar for its would-be leaders to shape up or ship out, represented an invitation to make targets of themselves. Once their ambition to share in government-formation was signalled, they could be challenged to provide specifics of their economic and social agenda, along with any likely "red lines". Such exposure could have unforeseen consequences. Most Independent TDs have enjoyed an easy ride in this Dáil, attracting support on the basis of continuing austerity, Government unpopularity and public disillusionment. When ministers promised the electorate a return to normality before the last budget, people recalled the extravagant lifestyle of a bubble economy, rather than earlier years of cautious, incremental improvement. Their disappointment has been made quite explicit. But a switch-off from national issues is a dangerous development that new political groupings may help to neutralise.