Number of ICU Covid patients unlikely to fall below 50 before December

The Government has been told that even under optimistic Covid-19 forecasting the number of patients in intensive care units (ICUs) is unlikely to fall below 50 until December at the earliest, and could even rise again in the interim.

In a briefing at the Cabinet meeting on Tuesday, Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly told colleagues that the hospital system was coming under sustained pressure due to a high number of admissions, both Covid-19 and non-Covid-19.

With rates of infection remaining high, the meeting was told that the increase rates in the 19-24 age group was especially worrying. The growth rate is at 3.3 per cent a day at present increasing the risk of serious rates of illness, although the booster vaccine programme for older groups will help reduce this.

The Cabinet was told that there was a fall in the ratio of case numbers that translate into hospitalisations from 35 per 1,000 cases, to 25 per 1,000 cases, in recent weeks. Minsters were told the winter plan has already commenced with an extensive use of private beds for the public system, with 55,000 bed days in private hospital already been used in 2021, treating 17,500 patients.

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There are now 297 ICU beds, up from 255 in early 2020 with working ongoing for another 43 beds. Booster vaccinations for nursing home residents has all been completed with the campaign for over 80s living in the community due to be completed by mid-November.

Some 336,000 people between 70 and 79 years of age will get boosters through their family doctors. It is hoped that all 475,000 people between 60 and 69 will have their booster shots completed by the end of December.

Compliance checks carried out by the HSA and the HSE show a high percentage of compliance with Covid-19 rules in businesses and organisations with only 3-4 per cent of those checked not in compliance. However, between 14 and 27 per cent of premises need further work to be done to be in compliance.