Minority government is almost certain for 32nd Dáil

Some clarity about the likely shape of the next government has finally emerged following the failure of the Dáil for a second time to elect a new taoiseach.

Any government that emerges in the coming weeks will almost certainly be a minority administration reliant on the support or neutrality of the main opposition party for its continued existence.

The survival of such a government will depend on a new approach to politics, not only by the new administration, but also by the opposition who will be in a position to bring the government down at any time.

At this stage, it looks as if Fine Gael has the best chance of leading such a minority government. However, Fianna Fáil hasn’t entirely abandoned hope that it could be in the driving seat.

The first break in the deadlock emerged after Enda Kenny and Micheál Martin both failed to be elected taoiseach yesterday, 40 days after the general election.

At that stage they agreed to their first face-to-face meeting and each of them gave the Dáil an insight into their thinking about where things are likely to go in the coming weeks.

Kenny invited Martin to talks and promised to be flexible and generous in negotiations and he expressed the hope that they would reach a conclusion.

The acting Taoiseach said it had been important for his party to engage with Independents over the past few weeks to establish the basis of a consensus and he pledged to try and build a government that would last a full term.

In response Martin reiterated his party’s position that Fianna Fáil would not go into coalition with Fine Gael in line with its election pledge to bring about a change of government.

Demanding to denounce

He also took a swipe at Sinn Féin and the left-wing parties who are demanding that others form a government so that they can get on with denouncing it. “Never before have so many spent so much time calling for a government they will vote against,” he said.

In an obvious dig at Fine Gael he criticised an approach to politics driven by “constant hype and spin” and said there could be “no trust and no real change if this approach to politics continues”.

Martin clearly ruled out calls for a coalition with Fine Gael, rejecting “the casual and repetitive demand of commentators” for a majority government.

He placed a lot of emphasis on independent studies that had shown that up to a third of governments in Europe since 1945 have had minority support in parliament.

“They have also shown that these governments have shown more respect for consultation in policy formation, have worked with real parliamentary oversight of all stages of the budget process and can encourage more fiscally responsible policies than many majority governments,” he said.

However, finding a mechanism to provide for the survival of a minority government in an Irish context is going to prove a real challenge in the coming weeks.

There are enormous obstacles in the way of a feasible minority government arising from both political and policy differences between the two main parties.

On the political front Fine Gael will have to demonstrate that it is capable of winning enough support in the Dáil so that Kenny can be elected taoiseach if Fianna Fáil is prepared to abstain.

Nomination

With 157 available votes in the Dáil, excluding the Ceann Comhairle, a minimum of 58 in support of Kenny’s nomination would be required to demonstrate that he can become taoiseach again if Fianna Fáil abstain.

It means that at least seven of the Independents who abstained yesterday would have to sign up to a Fine Gael minority government for it to have a chance of getting off the ground.

That is not an impossible task but it means that Independents will finally have to start showing their hand.

Getting the required number of votes is just one hurdle. Getting agreement on policy is another. In this context the future of Irish Water has emerged as a major stumbling block. Fianna Fáil pledged in the run-up to the election to suspend water charges and abolish Irish Water. Since the election Fine Gael has dug its heels in and committed itself to retaining the company.

On a broader front, even if some compromise can be reached on Irish Water, Fine Gael is very reluctant to go into government without some kind of guarantee that it will not be brought down at the first opportunity, while Fianna Fáil is determined to judge every issue, including the budget, on a case-by-case basis.

There is still no guarantee that the two parties will be able to agree and that means that a second election in the coming months is still something that cannot be ruled out.