Martin must be prepared to withstand coalition pressure

Usually when one force surrounds another and hopes to flush it out, an element of the siege involves throwing deeply unpleasant items over the enemy’s fortifications.

Micheál Martin and Enda Kenny are now politically dug in but Fine Gael – or some elements of the party – have decided on a different approach.

Their attempts thus far to force Fianna Fáil from its position involved catapulting unprecedented baubles in Martin's direction.

Half the Cabinet positions? Check.

Rotating taoiseach? Have that one too.

Martin, however, in some of his numerous meetings with Independent Deputies in recent days, has said he will not buy into Fine Gael’s grand coalition games.

Fianna Fáil insists this is not the same old political war game, and party sources genuinely believe the rules have changed.

Many, including some in Fine Gael, believe all this talk about political reform is merely a charade before the two big beasts sit down.

Fianna Fáil TDs maintain they are serious when they say they want substantial political reform and are not just playing for time. That feeling is percolating from the very top down.

“We didn’t get treated like dirt by Fine Gael for five years not to be serious about it,” said one source.

While some Fianna Fáilers believe they can eventually achieve a minority government led by Martin, the more realistic option is a Fine Gael minority government supported on a case-by-case basis from the Opposition by Fianna Fáil.

On the basis of Fine Gael’s approach of recent days, Martin and Fianna Fáil must be prepared to withstand the inevitable pressure that will be brought to bear by many – yes, including the media – to enter into coalition with Fine Gael.

Patience

Amid all the Fine Gael overtures, one senior Fianna Fáil source this week indicated that patience and playing the long game were virtues not often seen in politics. The source spoke of the role played by Alan Dukes’s

Tallaght

Strategy, and how Fine Gael lost patience with Dukes too soon.

He was eventually forced out following the 1990 presidential election, but there was discontent about how the Tallaght Strategy gave Charles Haughey a blank cheque, along with other issues surrounding Dukes's leadership.

The senior Fianna Fáiler, however, mused that Fine Gael were impatient back then and panicked, adding that Dukes should have been given more time.

Martin was approached yesterday by TDs seeking reassurance he is not contemplating coalition with Fine Gael, and he was said to be resolute in his determination he would not do so.

Party members, having read media reports about a possible coalition, also contacted their TDs expressing vehement opposition to such a move.

TDs, particularly those who survived the party’s electoral disaster in 2011 are dead against it – so far.

They believe Martin will not buckle under pressure for a coalition, and will hold on for either a Fianna Fáil minority government – “we are deadly serious about that”, said one TD – or supporting a Fine Gael minority administration on a case-by-case basis.

Some believe they just have to sit back and watch as Fine Gael turns on itself.

“Fine Gael are by their nature vicious and bitter, and they will fall out,” said one TD.

They all, however, watch Martin and hope his resolve remains stiff. That task will become harder if no progress is made a month from today.

It is believed that Martin must make some headway in that period – either on his moves towards political reform or gathering greater support among Independents and smaller parties than Kenny for his candidacy as taoiseach – to stave off the unbearable pressure calling for a Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael coalition.

And yet many point to Martin’s determination to stay his own course in the past number of years when he was ridiculed by a great many people, as a reason why he will hold fast to the promise not to enter government with Fine Gael.

He was told his pre-election position on possible coalitions was ridiculous, but he was proved right in the end.

Proved right

He was told his emphasis on public services above tax cuts was misguided but, again, he was proved right.

One of his TDs also pointed out yesterday that Martin could also have walked away in 2011 like other outgoing ministers of that Fianna Fáil-Green Party cabinet.

Martin had just suffered personal grief with the death of his daughter, and had more reason to leave public life than others, but he took on the task of rebuilding Fianna Fáil.

Now he again seems determined to play the longer game and, at worst, aims to support a minority Fine Gael coalition from the Opposition benches.

Perhaps he believes he then can become taoiseach in his own right – the summit never reached by Dukes.