Labour pains: Coming weeks may decide if party has a future

These are difficult, uncertain days for the Labour Party.

To the crushing disappointment of the general election result has been added not just a slow-motion leadership contest, but also the reopening of the perennially tortuous question for Labour of whether or not to join a coalition government.

The coalition question has always been excruciating for Labour. But the decisions taken by the party leadership and members over the coming weeks may decide more than just the future political direction of Labour: the coming weeks may decide whether the party has a future at all.

In the aftermath of the election result it was clear what the party’s future was. It would lick its wounds and try to rebuild in opposition, and somebody new would lead that process.

But in the weeks since, as the reality of opposition in the new Dáil, the precariousness of the party’s political position and the paucity of novel options for the leadership have become clear, that certainty has dissipated.

The party has moved to a position of official and unofficial indecision about its future.

Three positions

Party leader Joan Burton’s spokesman says there are three positions to choose from: outright opposition, a new coalition, or halfway between these two points, where Labour would facilitate or support a Fine Gael-led government from outside.

Conversations are now taking place at all levels of the Labour Party to choose between these options.

Senior ministers (including Burton) are said to be in favour of rebooting the old coalition, and took soundings from their local organisations over the weekend.

The results were decidedly mixed. Many of the councillors who spoke in recent days are opposed to the idea. Yesterday, junior Minister and Cork East TD Sean Sherlock came out against the idea.

Seven weeks after the election, it is late in the day to be commencing this process. But they are where they are, so to speak.

The reaction to The Irish Times story of last Saturday revealing the party was now actively considering coalition is acknowledged by party insiders to be cool. But members can see that the options for the party are limited, to put it mildly. "There are no good options here, only crappy ones," said one councillor.

“The option will be an election, or another coalition,” said a senior party figure.

Need to consult

Very few people – and certainly few who are in favour of coalition - are willing to state their position openly, instead retreating behind the need to consult with party colleagues, and for the party to wait for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to conclude their talks. These are holding positions, while they see what the party leadership is inclined to do.

The difficulty is the party leadership seems unwilling to offer public direction.

Partly, that's because Joan Burton wants to stay on as leader, and few if any of her colleagues will support her, making it difficult for the party's elected TDs to speak with one voice on anything.

It’s also because Burton and her colleagues are unsure that they could get any coalition through a conference of party members.

As such, the odds probably remain against Labour joining a government.

But what would have to happen to make it more likely?

Firstly, Fine Gael will have to conclude their talks with Fianna Fáil this week on the nature of the confidence and supply arrangement between the two parties.

Then Labour – probably with the Greens – would open tentative negotiations on a coalition with Fine Gael.

Two-week notice period

If that is successful, Labour would have to call a conference, for which party chiefs say a two-week notice period is required.

And then the party leadership – all of it, surely – would have to recommend to the membership that it accept the deal.

That is a lot of hurdles to be crossed. It is also – at a minimum – a month away before resolution.

The ongoing delay in forming a government may have completely changed the political context for everyone by then. Already, people involved at all levels in the process say that it must reach a conclusion soon.

If Labour decides to do this - already a big if - the thing it needs more than anything is time.

There is a limit to how much time Enda Kenny has to give. It's true that nobody knows exactly what that limit is. But 53 days after the election, politicians on all sides believe it must be reached in short order.