Labour must wait. . .

Delegates at the Labour Party national conference in January had no intimation of the storm that was brewing up on the horizon.

Sure, a number of doomsday predictions had been made during that period, none more so than the one by Noel Whelan that the party would end up with no more than eight seats.

The mood at the conference was ebullient, verging on bullish. A few very senior politicians actually predicted that this election would finally give lie to the Eamon de Valera curse of almost a century ago: “Labour must wait.”

The big problem for the party at this moment in time is not the wait, but the wilt. The party’s very existence is under threat.

Late last week, the party's leadership advanced the idea of it going into coalition with Fine Gael, even in its reduced circumstances.

It was driven by Joan Burton. The goodies seem enticing. A few senior Cabinet posts were on offer. There was also the lure of a carte blanche to fulfil key Labour Party priorities; including housing, the Eighth Amendment, and primary and mental health care.

Was that ever going to go anywhere?

Realistic tone
As we report Wednesday morning, Burton is now striking a more realistic (and fatalistic) tone, telling her party's supporters to prepare for another election.

She is probably not far off the mark. The Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil negotiations should produce a workable outcome. The difficulty will be with the Independents. It always has been.

The first thing you must understand with Independents is that the national interest dovetails with the local interest. Therefore, there will be local and sectional deals for every Independent deputy who signs up for government and a Late Late Show approach when it comes to ministries and chairs of committees (one for everyone in the audience).

Still, after all that, they will struggle to make up the numbers. And there will be absolutely no guarantee that each and every one of them will stay the course.

Would Labour be better off in government?
This question really divides opinion. Some of my own colleagues are very strongly of the view that they would do better in government than in opposition. I spoke to a senior Fianna Fáil figure yesterday who was of the same opinion.

Those in favour have argued the party will be able to punch above its weight in government and achieve really important goals that are key for the party. It would also avoid for Labour, the humiliation of going into opposition where it would be crowded out by bigger parties such as Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin, not to mention the boisterous Alphabet Alliance.

In opposition, so the argument goes, it will be shorn of State funding and will not be in a position to mount any decent revival.

It is a little bit like the child-catcher’s routine in Chitty Chitty Bang Bang. The sweeties on display are enticing and the temptation is almost irresistible.

But there’s a catch. And it is this. It is the looming net of the child-catcher luring you into something quite dangerous. The party, if it were to choose government, would be in danger of going the same route as the dodo, into extinction.

The party took a trouncing in the general election. If it goes into government, what’s to prevent its support haemorrhaging even further, to the point of extinction?

The cost
Even if it gets massive wins on policy, at what cost will it come? Labour in government achieved some big goals, but the electorate astounded it with its ingratitude.

A smaller Labour Party will more likely see all the glory being ceded to the big party in the arrangement, Fine Gael. It is the rich wot gets the glory, it is the poor wot gets the blame.

There is a rune that venerable old parties cannot go extinct. I do not buy it. Maybe I am wrong. Perhaps the electorate will approach Labour’s role in government in a more nuanced and subtle way than it did in the February elections.

I struggle to find any party that has managed to rebuild while in government. The Progressive Democrats are often cited as having defied the orthodoxy. But there was a singular message behind its electoral success in 2002. It was Michael McDowell shinning up a lamp-post with a poster warning about single party government. It worked, but it was a blip on a longer journey into oblivion.

Back to basics
Labour, enfeebled as it is, needs to go and do the same thing as Fine Gael did in 2002, and what Fianna Fáil and the Greens did in 2011. That is, to go back to basics, realign itself with its core values, reconnect with its core supporters, and start promoting a new generation of politicians to emerge from the ashes.

That means becoming more left-wing and going back to its working-class support base. The party has become a liberal one in this generation, winning most support in middle-class areas from well-educated (and generally well-heeled) university educated socialists (I hesitate to use the smoked salmon cliché).

It will also have to start promoting its young and aspiring politicians, those councillors who made breakthroughs in the 2014 elections against the odds.

It is not a very appetising prospect, but it has to be done. The party has to lick its wounds, pick itself up, allow the wounds to heal, and then begin the slow, painful, process of rebuilding the party.

That has to happen in opposition. It is folly to think it can happen in government.