Fine Gael manifesto leaves few hostages to fortune

Fine Gael’s manifesto is a text book example of a second-term document from an outgoing government. It is cautious, careful and leaves few hostages to fortune.

Gone is the expansive brave new world stuff from five years ago. Remember the five-point plan? In précis, its five promises were the sun, moon, stars, planets and Universal Health Insurance. The latter has been dropped, as have some of the other blithe aspirations on political reform, a Constitution Day, abolishing Nama, New Era utility privatisation, quango culls, and not giving a red cent to the banks.

Now, the party is offering hundreds of measures in a well-researched comprehensive document, few of which really stand out. The five-point plan has been replaced by a three-point plan, but its elements do no really roll off the tongue. Jobs, tax, health, housing, crime and education dominate as you would expect. The focus group research is evident as there is a lot of triangulation.

That's clearest in the economic plan. The Universal Social Charge is very unpopular with tax payers and Fine Gael, Labour and Fianna Fáil have all committed to ditch it. The Fine Gael plan is hard to reconcile, ideologically, with its thinking from 2011. Then it focused on cutting the higher rate of tax. Now it's farewell USC. There is a rider; a 5 per cent 'clawback' levy on incomes above €100,000, as well as the removal of tax credits for those earning over €70,000.

That is part of a strategy to deflect a damaging image of the party looking out for only the wealthiest.

Cardinal point

The cardinal point of the manifesto is a promise to create 200,000 jobs over five years in all sectors, with €1 billion being pumped into a “future jobs fund”.

A central plank of health policy is abolition of the HSE. But that is complex and messy. Like all governments, the interlocutory solution involves throwing money at it. Nearly €2 billion extra will go to recruiting hundreds of medical staff and increase services. On the primary care side, unlike Labour, there is no commitment to extend GP care to over 18s and under 70s.

In another area which has been plagued with difficulties, housing, there are ambitious targets. The Government wants to increase the annual housing output to 25,000 by 2021 (still only a third of the peak in 2007). It will also seek to deliver 35,000 new social housing units.

On crime there is raft of get-tough measures, plus a core commitment to increase Garda numbers to 14,000 by 2021 (an increase of 1,500). In education there is no reference to third-level student fees though there is a big promise to lower the pupil teacher ratio in primary schools from 28:1 to 18:1.

With regard to another big election topic, childcare, there is also an expansion of the free preschool services for three year-olds, worth an average of €1,500. Yet more promises on another perennial underachiever, broadband: 85 per cent coverage by 2018, 100 per cent by 2021.

There are a few new ideas - a sugar tax, as well as a ‘fry free zone’ (no fast food outlets) near new schools.

The manifesto is non-specific on climate change, which may turn out to be a soft underbelly. Enda Kenny also confirmed he has ditched his 'reform' to discontinue compulsory Irish at Leaving Certificate level.

Fianna Fáil was mentioned (pejoratively) by the top table (of all 10 senior Ministers) and all notions of a grand coalition were dismissed during the question and answer session.

But the numbers may dictate otherwise. Purely on their respective manifestos, would it take much longer than half an hour to arrive at a programme for government?