Fine Gael leadership outcome may shape Irish politics for foreseeable future

Much is at stake in the contest between Leo Varadkar and Simon Coveney. The result will decide the next Fine Gael party leader, the next taoiseach and, probably, the shape of Irish politics for the foreseeable future. The winner may hold the key to unlocking the current stalemate between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

The latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll is a timely reminder of how deadlocked the political situation is. Fine Gael is the most popular party, on 30 per cent (up two points), with Fianna Fáil hot on their heels with 27 per cent support (down two points). With one exception (July 2016), neither Fine Gael nor Fianna Fáil have polled above 30 per cent in the past five years. Confidence and supply arrangements may remain a feature of our political landscape for many years to come.

Sinn Féin are holding relatively steady with 20 per cent of the vote (down one point), while Labour are on 5 per cent (up one point).

Satisfaction with how the Government is running the country last reached this level in 2011

Since achieving an impressive 30 per cent in the 2016 General Election, Independents/Others have drifted lower in successive polls, landing on 18 per cent in this latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll (unchanged on our February poll).

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Overall satisfaction with the Government is up a massive nine points, to 37 per cent, against the backdrop of relative political stability as well as strong economic growth. Satisfaction with how the Government is running the country last reached this level in 2011, in the early days of the Fine Gael/Labour government.

On 30 per cent (up two points), Fine Gael has equalled its highest poll rating of recent times, helped no doubt by what has been so far a positive leadership contest following Enda Kenny’s departure.

The current Fine Gael leadership contest will play a defining role in shaping the party’s future. Ultimately Fine Gael has two strategic directions open to it and which one the party takes will depend on which candidate triumphs.

Under Varadkar’s leadership, Fine Gael would attempt to woo that segment of the squeezed middle whom to date have sought refuge in left-wing parties, Fianna Fáil and Independents.

Policies designed to attract younger, liberal voters risk alienating Fine Gael voters that have a more conservative mindset

Ideologically, the squeezed middle and the Fine Gael brand have much in common, yet the party punches below its weight among this demographic. In particular, younger voters (most of whom are in employment) and those living in Dublin are somewhat less inclined than voters generally to support Fine Gael. The fact that Varadkar is a young, Dublin TD is the obvious draw, but so too are some of the policies he unveiled this week around parental leave, pensions reform and a dedicated “urbanism fund”.

This strategy, however, is not without risk as younger voters do not trust mainstream politicians, and policies designed to attract younger, liberal voters risk alienating Fine Gael voters that have a more conservative mindset. Even a straight-talking Leo Varadkar will find walking this tightrope quite a challenge.

A Varadkar-style Fine Gael would also meet resistance in convincing the squeezed middle that lower taxes and greater investment come at a price worth paying. Poll after poll has shown a reluctance on behalf of voters to reduce spending on public services, even if it is to their ultimate benefit.

A Coveney win, on the other hand, would send Fine Gael down a familiar path. Seen by voters as an experienced, trusted and conservative politician, a Coveney victory would not scare the Fine Gael horses and would position the party to maximise its vote share among older voters – a critical cohort.

The spotlight has been on Fine Gael in recent weeks, leaving Fianna Fáil somewhat in the shadows. A lack of profile perhaps explains a marginal drop in support for Fianna Fáil, down two points to 27 per cent in today’s poll.

Fianna Fáil relies on older voters (42 per cent support among 65+ year olds) for much of its support and performs especially well in Munster (with 33 per cent support). Within these two key groups, Coveney is much preferred over Varadkar, so there can be little doubt as to which outcome Fianna Fáil are hoping for.

That Coveney would position Fine Gael to take votes from Fianna Fáil is a compelling reason to consider the Corkman for leader. However, older voters tend to be party loyal, with the result that translating Coveney’s attractiveness to traditional Fianna Fáil voters into actual votes for Fine Gael sounds better in theory than is likely to work in practice.

At 5 per cent in today’s poll, Labour have a long way to travel, but all journeys begin with small steps and a one-point gain in this latest poll has the party moving in the right direction.

Labour will be watching the Fine Gael leadership contest with great interest. Varadkar's appeal to younger, urban voters puts him on a collision course with Labour. If Varadkar prevails, Labour party leader Brendan Howlin will be forced to define precisely how a liberal, progressive Labour is different to Varadkar's Fine Gael.

Enda Kenny's satisfaction rating is up a whopping 12 points to 43 per cent , reflecting what was a dignified exit

The campaign for leader of Fine Gael does not appear to have caught the attention, yet, of left-leaning voters. Sinn Féin, on 20 per cent is down just one point, while Independents/Others, on 18 per cent , are unchanged.

While the message has been mixed for political parties in this latest poll, the news for party leaders has been a positive one across the board. Coverage of Fine Gael's leadership journey has been the media tide that has lifted all boats. Increases in leader satisfaction are recorded for Micheál Martin (up two points to 39 per cent ), for Gerry Adams (up two points to 31 per cent ) and for Brendan Howlin (up four points to 22 per cent ).

As for Enda Kenny, his satisfaction rating is up a whopping 12 points to 43 per cent , reflecting what was a dignified exit after four decades of honest political service. History may already be judging the political career of Enda Kenny kindly.