Election 2016: Fine Gael stumbles in poll as electorate fails to buy message

The election campaign has finally come alive with a Red C poll in this morning's Irish Sun putting Fine Gael on a miserable 26 per cent - down five points since the turn of the year.

Fine Gael now has no option but to further crank up "Project Fear" and exhibit A is the front page of the Irish Independent this morning, with the normally mind-mannered Richard Bruton saying Ireland will end up like Greece if Sinn Féin and a motley crew of others take power.

This followed claims by Enda Kenny yesterday that Ireland will see a flight of capital and jobs if some of the alternatives on offer come to power, a statement ridiculed by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael

We can expect much more of this as polling say approaches. It seems voters aren’t buying the messages Fine Gael has been selling to date. Analysis from yours truly of what brought Fine Gael to this pass is here.

The Government’s previous strategy of insisting “There Is No Alternative” (Tina) to the Coalition is now in trouble. Tina has left the building, and if one more poll puts Fianna Fáil in the early 20s, with Fine Gael stuck in the mid 20s, Michéal Martin becomes a credible alternative Taoiseach.

Even yesterday, Fine Gael figures held fast to the belief that it will be alright on the night and that the electorate will come back on polling day and put the party into the mid-30s. After the poll last night that was being revised back to early 30s.

There is still likely to be a swing back at the last, but government formation, which looked difficult before, now seems nigh-on impossible.

Enda Kenny may have one more thought at the back of his mind as he fights to salvage his campaign: it is likely his party will have serious questions to ask of his leadership if the election result is a major disappointment.

Team Healy-Rae surges in Kerry

Another poll yesterday brought astonishing tidings from the Kingdom, where the decision by the Healy-Raes to run Danny alongside outgoing deputy Michael may be vindicated.

Harry McGee outlines the findings of the poll here, with Michael polling an astonishing 33 per cent. Danny is way back on 4 per cent, but a tight vote-management strategy could haul both brothers over the line.

The poll places Fine Gael in contention to hold its two seats in the county, with Brendan Griffin and Jimmy Deenihan well placed for a return to the Dáil. Fianna Fáil seems on course to take a seat in the county, but the performance of Sinn Féin's Martin Ferris is a real surprise.

Ferris is on just 7 per cent - one point behind Labour's Arthur Spring. Word from Kerry is the Healy-Rae machine is cleaning Ferris out in Tralee.

If the poll is reflected come election day, the question arises about whether Kerry can expect double the bounty if it has two Healy-Raes propping up a government, instead of just one.