After many tense and uncertain hours, a clearly relieved Welsh Secretary, Mr Alun Michael, was elected to the new National Assembly for Wales last night but success was tinged with disappointment for Labour with the party failing to ensure enough seats to form a majority government. Labour is expected to consolidate its plans for government over the weekend and could attempt to govern with a minority administration rather than entering a formal coalition with the Liberal Democrats.
The biggest surprise of the election, and one which is sure to cause the Prime Minister, Mr Blair, concern, was the success of Mr Dafydd Wigley's Plaid Cymru party which scored massive electoral gains in traditional Labour heart-lands. The results of the election were: Labour 28 seats, Plaid Cymru 17 seats, the Conservatives nine seats and the Liberal Democrats six seats. Turn-out was disappointingly low at 46 per cent.
It was a critical day for the Welsh Secretary, Mr Michael, and by extension Mr Blair who endorsed his leadership. He endured more than seven tense hours of waiting and counting in the Mid and West Wales region until the final constituency vote came in at 4.30 p.m. in Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire securing his seat and leadership of the Assembly.
The quirks of PR meant that Labour had to lose constituencies in Mid and West Wales region to Plaid Cymru or the other main parties to ensure Mr Michael won his seat in the Assembly from the Additional Member top-up list in the region. Plaid Cymru had already secured the key constituency of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr earlier in the day by 17,328 votes to 10,348 to Labour, but the calculations under PR meant Mr Michael had to wait a few more hours to learn his fate. When Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire finally came in, with Labour taking the seat, the other Labour losses in the constituencies of Carmarthen East, Llanelli and Conwy to Plaid Cymru actually meant Mr Michael gained one of the four Additional Member seats in Mid and West Wales where he headed Labour's party list.
Mr Michael said the priority was to make the Assembly work. He was "disappointed" Labour had not won a large enough majority, but would work with all parties to ensure the Assembly "delivered for the people of Wales".
The first result came from the Caerphilly constituency at 11.05 a.m. where the former Welsh Secretary, Mr Ron Davies, won the seat with a majority of 2,861 but saw his support plunge 25 per cent from the 1997 General Election. Plaid Cymru benefited with a swing in its favour of 24 per cent.
In Cardiff West, Mr Rhodri Morgan, who lost out in the Labour leadership contest to Mr Michael, won his seat and produced the only positive swing to Labour in a constituency, with just over 1 per cent.
Only the Plaid Cymru leader, Mr Wigley won his seat Caernarfon seat through the traditional first-past-the-post system in the constituencies. The Conservative leader, Mr Rod Richards, and the Liberal Democrat leader, Mr Mike German failed to win their seats but were elected on the regional top-up lists.
But by far the biggest upset for the government was Plaid Cymru's surge into the Labour heartlands of the south Wales Valleys. Against all predictions, traditional Labour working-class constituencies, such as the Rhondda and Islwyn, were wiped off Labour's electoral map by Plaid Cymru. The party also significantly increased its share of the vote from the 1997 General Election by about 35 per cent in each seat.
The biggest constituency vote change since 1997 from Labour to Plaid Cymru came in Islwyn. Plaid Cymru won the seat by 10,042 votes to 9,438 for Labour with Labour dropping 34.7 per cent of its 1997 vote. The other big shock of the day for Labour came in the Rhondda, where the Labour MEP, Mr Wayne David, was expected to romp home, having indicated that he intended to give up his seat in the European Parliament and return to Wales.
Again Plaid Cymru surprised even its own supporters by winning the seat with over 13,000 votes. On average, the Labour vote across Wales was down by 17 per cent compared to the 1997 election, with Plaid Cymru increasing its support by 18 per cent from its showing in the same election. The Liberal Democrats increased their support by only 1 per cent.
The results made uncomfortable reading for the Conservatives, who saw their fortunes plunge by 4 per cent on the 1997 election results.