Pessimism about progress in Northern Ireland

Parnell Summer School: A dismal view of the prospects for a restored Executive in Northern Ireland by the November deadline was expressed by a number of speakers at the Parnell Summer School in Avondale, Co Wicklow, yesterday.

Some speakers also maintained that following a failed attempt to restore the Executive, Dublin would become a weak link in attempts to make progress.

Broadcaster and commentator Dr Brian Feeney, pro-chancellor of Queen's University Belfast Chris Gibson, Sinn Féin TD Aengus Ó Snodaigh, Dr Brian Walker (QUB) and SDLP Assembly member Dolores Kelly all expressed strong doubts that the Executive would be formed again this year or anytime soon after.

Dr Feeney said people spoke of a split within the biggest unionist party but its members had been elected on their opposition to sharing power with Sinn Féin, and it was "difficult to see how the DUP could do a 180-degree turn" in the time allotted.

He further predicted that after the failure to restore the Executive, the prospects for progress in Northern Ireland would be even more bleak. While there was much that could be done to enhance and expand the role of North-South bodies even in the absence of an Executive, that would be unlikely to happen as "the Dublin Government will then be the weakest link".

Dr Feeney said the Government no longer supported the majority nationalist party in the North, as that party was now Sinn Féin, and this would weaken the nationalist position. This would be particularly true in the forthcoming general election campaign in the Republic, during which Sinn Féin and the other parties would be political opponents.

A further difficulty he saw after November was the uncertainty created by the anticipated change of prime minister in Britain. "I would not be too sanguine about a great leap forward in the nationalist agenda in 2007," he concluded.

Mr Ó Snodaigh said "we still live in hope" in relation to the prospect of a restored Executive, but if it was not to be "then so be it". There was "much more" in the Good Friday agreement on which all parties could work.

The QUB pro-chancellor and businessman, Mr Gibson, who described himself as a liberal unionist, said the current impasse was created because "Sinn Féin did not come through fast enough on decommissioning and did not sign the Good Friday agreement". However, he said "in the real world" business went ahead on an all-Ireland basis within the EU, and issues of two currencies and small changes in regulations were largely irrelevant. He warned against the danger of people being caught in "green mists", while business and the real world moved on.

Ms Kelly of the SDLP acknowledged the difficulties in securing a restored Executive, but said it was vital for issues such as equal access to health and social services and education that it be set up. It might have been easier, she said, if "the IRA had handed the prize to Trimble instead of Paisley".

Prof Walker said "it is now up to the DUP. We must wait and see."