Opposition set for narrow win in Croatian poll

Croatia:Croatia's centre-left opposition appeared to have narrowly won a hard-fought general election last night, when exit polls gave them a slender lead over the ruling conservatives.

The first polls released gave the Social Democrats (SDP) 34.6 per cent of votes against 33.2 per cent for the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) of prime minister Ivo Sanader - a difference smaller than the margin of error given for the survey.

Reacting to the polls - which if correct would see the SDP take 62 seats in parliament and the HDZ 57 seats - opposition spokeswoman Gordana Grbic said: "We will see what will happen later.

"We thank everyone who voted for us. So far it is the best result achieved by the SDP in any election."

Mladen Pavic, spokesman for the HDZ, said the party traditionally did well among Croats living abroad, and would triumph once their votes were taken into account.

"We are completely satisfied with the results of this exit poll," he said.

"The HDZ will win," Mr Pavic added.

Both parties share major policy goals, including aiming for accession to the European Union in 2010 and receiving an invitation to join Nato next year.

Furthermore, neither party has committed itself to potentially controversial reforms suggested by Brussels, such as overhauling Croatia's ageing shipbuilding industry, streamlining public services and making the cumbersome judiciary more effective.

The lack of policy differences between the leading parties has made the election something of a battle of personalities - with Mr Sanader appearing to fair badly against SDP leader Zoran Milanovic, who revitalised his party after taking the helm in June.

"Elections are a festival of democracy and I think that our citizens should decide on how we will live in Croatia in the next four years," Mr Sanader said after voting in the Adriatic port of Split.

Mr Milanovic flashed a victory sign after voting in the capital, Zagreb, and urged "all Croatian voters to cast their ballots".

Turnout was later estimated at about 48 per cent.

Several commentators said Mr Milanovic - whose dynamic impact on the SDP has been likened to that of Tony Blair on Britain's Labour Party - appeared poised for victory.

"The HDZ created a lot of enemies with its aggressive campaign and stands," said leading political analyst Marijana Grbesa.

"The SDP is in a much better situation because it doesn't carry baggage and is not burdened with relationships from the past, so it will find coalition partners more easily."