Opposition in Ukraine poised for victory

UKRAINE: At the close of voting last night in Ukraine's parliamentary elections the Regions Party, running in opposition to President Viktor Yushchenko, topped an exit poll at 27.5 per cent. The party led by Yulia Tymoshenko, a former ally of the president, was second with 21.6 per cent, and Mr Yushchenko's Our Ukraine Party was in third place with 15.6 per cent.

Ukrainians stood in long lines to vote yesterday to register their displeasure with President Yushchenko, hero of last winter's Orange Revolution.

Disillusionment with Mr Yushchenko's first year in office, and a split in his administration, are the reasons why his arch rival Victor Yanukovich's Party of Regions is poised to take the largest share of the 450-seat parliament of what is Europe's second-largest country.

Whether the president manages to build a workable government depends on what is expected to be a frenzied few weeks of horse-trading between the three parties. Whether supporters of Mr Yushchenko and Ms Tymoshenko can unite in a revived Orange team remained in doubt last night. Since he fired her as prime minister last autumn, amid mutual allegations of corruption, Ms Tymoshenko's Party of Julia Tymoshenko has campaigned against its former rival, accusing it of corruption.

Mr Yanukovich said that if he can form a coalition, he will end Ukraine's talks on joining Nato and return it to alliance with its eastern neighbour, Russia.

A petrol bomb was thrown at a polling station near Kiev but human rights groups reported almost no other incidents in a day of freezing temperatures.

With so much to play for, all three parties had launched a blitz that saw the major cities drown in flags and banners and rock concerts. Each party hired teams of American image consultants to smooth out their sharp edges.

Mr Yushchenko's first year of office has seen the gloss wear off his "Orange" credentials. A strong orator out of office, he has blundered from one crisis to another as president. His administration has been accused of incompetence and corruption, and economic growth has slowed from 12 per cent before the revolution to 2 per cent now. Scandals have rocked his administration, including revelations that his son tried to patent the symbol of the revolution, "Tak!" or "Yes", in order to make money selling souvenir hats and scarves.

Talks have begun on joining the EU and Nato, but neither is likely to happen soon.

But even some of Mr Yushchenko's successes have a way of rebounding on him. When he came to office, he ended the media controls of his predecessor, with the result that the new, free media wasted no time in investigating his own mistakes.

In September Mr Yushchenko shocked his own supporters by forming a pact with Mr Yanukovich to get enough votes in parliament to elect a new cabinet.

This was despite many Ukrainians holding Mr Yanukovich responsible for the poisoning attack in 2004 that left Mr Yushchenko's face badly scarred.

Ms Tymoshenko last week used a huge election rally and rock concert in Kiev to pledge that she would never form a coalition with Mr Yanukovich.

Although Mr Yushchenko has made no such pledge, most analysts expect him to form a coalition with Ms Tymoshenko, despite their huge personal animosity, simply because his own pro-western foreign policy is so at odds with Mr Yanukovich's desire to face eastwards.

"Officials in both Orange factions have indicated to me that there is going to be a post-election coalition," said British writer Askold Krushelnyckyauthor of An Orange Revolution. "Anything else would be political suicide."

Yushchenko rule: successes and failures

SUCCESSES (since Viktor Yushchenko took power in January 2005 after winning a rerun of a rigged presidential poll):

Media freedom. Yushchenko's administration ended a policy of telling newspapers and television channels what to report and how to do it. As a result, all senior government officials are subject to increased media scrutiny.

More transparency in forming the government and appointing officials to other senior posts.

Better relations with the European Union, Nato and the US, progress in talks with the World Trade Organisation.

The sale of Ukraine's largest steel mill, Kryvorizhstal, to Mittal Steel in October 2005 for $4.8 billion, a price exceeding all expectations.

The tender was ordered after courts overturned the initial sale for about $800 million to businessmen with close ties to key figures in the previous administration.

FAILURES:

Public rows and infighting between government officials on key policy issues. Deadlock with parliament after deputies sacked Prime Minister Yuri Yekhanurov's government over a gas deal with Russia two months before the parliamentary election.

Lack of a clear long-term economic strategy and continued strong state interference in some sectors of the economy.

The absence of a clear policy on privatisations conducted in dubious circumstances under his predecessor. Most big Ukrainian businesses and foreign investors were scared off by repeated pledges under Yekhanurov's predecessor, Yulia Tymoshenko, to carry out a comprehensive review of sell-offs.

Corruption allegations against senior presidential aides.

Tension in relations with neighbouring Russia, which supplies up to 80 per cent of Ukraine's energy needs.