EVEN before his election as Taoiseach of the 28th Dail, the opposition parties have been taking the measure of Bertie Ahern and planning to make his life as awkward as possible in the months ahead.
There is no question of precipitating an immediate general election there is no appetite within any of the political parties for a return to the constituency killing fields but Fine Gael is already promising "strong and aggressive tactics" in opposition.
The Labour Party remains in deep shock over the loss of half of its parliamentary representatives. And Democratic Left is also hurting. Both parties are contemplating programmes of reorganisation and development that could span a year, with an election somewhere further down the road.
Having won eight extra seats in the general election, Fine Gael is all steamed up about its role as undisputed leader of the opposition parties. And it intends to flex its muscles from the outset.
Already, it has identified the Dail's legislative committees as the Achilles' heel of the new government. Lacking firm control of the committees, the Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrats coalition would be incapable of implementing contentious legislation.
Jim Higgins, the Government's Chief Whip, yesterday described the emerging situation as "a recipe for chaos". While Mr Ahern would have little difficulty being elected as Taoiseach today, he said, the incoming government simply did not have the numbers to control the legislative committees, which were an integral part of the Dail process.
Under existing rules, the seven Independents and two Green Party TDs would be entitled, as a technical group, to a single representative on each Dail committee. And they would therefore hold the balance of power between the incoming government and the outgoing Rainbow parties, not just in the Dail, but on all Oireachtas committees.
Any move to change the rules will be fiercely resisted by Fine Gael. And the party has already been in contact with a number of Independents and with the Green Party, advising them of their potential political muscle.
During the election campaign, Fianna Fail announced its determination to reform the Leinster House system and to reduce the number of Oireachtas committees from 12 to five. Later, as part of government negotiations, Des O'Malley was promised a position as chairman of the foreign affairs committee. But these plans may have to be revised if the incoming government runs into difficulty.
These problems match, but hardly surpass, the conundrum facing Charlie McCreevy if he becomes minister for finance. On the basis of official figures, the new government will have no option but to cut back on existing services.
Under the programme for government, the rise in current government spending will be kept to 4 per cent for 1998. This includes an inflation rate which is officially estimated at 2.1 per cent.
But the carryover cost in public sector pay for 1998 already amounts to £143 million, arising from Partnership 2000. A further 10,000 clerical workers along with State employees in the education and health sector, are negotiating additional increases under the PCW. And the Garda Siochana is looking for a commission on pay and conditions.
To put it bluntly, the new government's commitment to limit spending cannot be met without chopping back on existing services. The 4 per cent limit it set itself has already been gobbled up by carryover pay costs and inflation. And that doesn't allow for a new Garda uniform, prison space or more money for education, health or deprived areas.
Mr McCreevy agreed at the weekend that it would be hard to meet the fiscal commitments in the programme. But, he said, if inflation fell to 1 per cent, then government spending could rise by 3 per cent in real terms.
But hoping for low inflation may be a misplaced aspiration in the run up to EMU, especially when sterling is behaving like a loose cannon.
In that context, Ruairi Quinn spoke of the new government's tax cuts adding "further fuel to the risk of inflation". There were echoes of the British Lawson years, as the Minister for Finance warned that an "extra cash/tax revenue stimulus" was "neither necessary nor prudent" when the economy was booming. And he called on the incoming government to moderate its fiscal policy.
Even before the new government has been formed, there are large, dark clouds on its horizon.